Commodity market report

Global aluminium short-term outlook October 2017

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Report summary

The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two years. The LME price raced to a 2017 high of $2215/t on October 26 the highest level since March 2012 when the price hit $2362/t. The official cash price broke through the $2100/t resistance level during the final week of September from where it has continued to build strength. Aluminium has retained its position as one of the best performing metals on the LME during 2017 dipping just below zinc in the final few weeks of October. Much of the recent rise in base metals prices can be attributed to stronger than expected macroeconomic data which is fuelling investor risk appetite. For aluminium prices strength is being driven by both fresh buying and short covering though there are concerns that the market may have overextended on long position building.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Global aluminium short-term outlook October 2017

    PDF 866.92 KB

  • Document

    Data tables aluminium STO October 2017.xls

    XLS 522.00 KB

  • Document

    Global aluminium short-term outlook October 2017

    ZIP 1.03 MB

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Supply-demand balances
  • Demand
  • Supply

Tables and charts

This report includes 29 images and tables including:

Images

  • Global PMI's broadly supportive for aluminium demand
  • Global supply-demand balance and days of consumption, 2016 - 2020
  • Index of LME prices, Jan 3 = 100
  • LME cash price and spreads, July 2017 - October 2017
  • Profitability on aluminium LME financing
  • Global benchmark aluminium premia
  • US production of automotive sheet
  • Chinese exports of semis to the EU
  • Supply: Image 1
  • Supply: Image 2
  • Supply: Image 3
  • Demand: Image 1
  • Demand: Image 2
  • Demand: Image 3

Tables

  • Aluminium key forecasts
  • Supply: Table 1
  • Supply: Table 2
  • Supply: Table 3
  • Supply: Table 4
  • Planned China new capacity refinery projects in 2017, (kt)
  • Supply: Table 6
  • Supply: Table 7
  • Price forecasts and world quarterly supply/demand balance – (kt)
  • Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
  • Global alumina production (kt)
  • Global primary aluminium production (kt)
  • Aluminium stock and premia (kt)
  • Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
  • Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)

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