Global aluminium short-term outlook October 2021 Report

Commodity Market Report 29 October 2021

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Report summary

The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. Sellers were in the ascendency in the second half of October as Chinese coal prices fell. October turned out to be a month of two halves. The LME price raced to a month official cash high of US$3179/t and hit US$3200/t in intra-day trading on 18 October. Since then, the price has pivoted to a downward trajectory, trading between US$2650– 2680/t. At the time of writing, prices had moved tentatively above the US$2700/t level on dip buying. The sharp drop in prices is not unique to aluminium, the entire base metals complex has taken a hit. Just as the run up prices was overdone; we think the sell-off has been excessive. China’s supply woes are not going to go away anytime soon on lower coal prices.

China
Asia ex-China
Europe
North America
Alumina Market Developments

Tables and charts

This report includes 26 images and tables including:

Manufacturing activity remains subdued
Investment growth in retreat
Credit tightening impacting the property market

Japanese production of semis
Chinese exports of aluminium semis to the EU
US shipments of extrusions
US shipments of flat-rolled products
Aluminium project lead times
Summary of September production, kt
China and ROW aluminium production growth
China capacity change January-October 2021, ktpa
Changes in aluminium production estimates since the last month, (kt)
Spot alumina price
World ex-China alumina balances, China imports and spot prices, 2020-2023, (kt)
World ex-China alumina balance
China smelter grade alumina balance
Changes in global SGA production estimates since the last month, (kt)
World ex-China alumina regions
Price forecasts and global quarterly aluminium supply/demand balance – (kt)
Global aluminium prices and premia
Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
Global secondary aluminium consumption (kt)
Global quarterly alumina production (kt) - including non-metallurgical production but excluding adjustments
Global quarterly primary aluminium production (kt) - excluding adjustments
Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)