Commodity Market Report

Global aluminium short-term outlook September 2016



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Report summary

The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. Our base case view of the market supply-demand balance continues to show a market that is in a comfortable oversupply position over the next few years. Despite an upward revision to our Chinese demand growth estimates, continued output build in China and slowing demand growth in key ROW markets will leave the market balance in surplus  over the next 3 years. We expect the scope for significant average annual price gains to be limited.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Data tables aluminium STO September 2016.xls

    XLS 504.00 KB

  • Document

    Global aluminium short-term outlook September 2016

    PDF 590.46 KB

  • Document

    Global aluminium short-term outlook September 2016

    ZIP 763.03 KB

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Supply-demand balances
    • China
    • Japan
      • Taiwan aluminium sheet output
    • Europe
    • China’s output bounces higher in August after rain impacted July
    • Changes in aluminium production estimates since August, (kt)
    • Rest of World alumina balances, China imports and Spot prices, 2015-2018, (kt)

Tables and charts

This report includes 28 images and tables including:


  • Aluminium key forecasts
  • Supply: Table 1
  • Supply: Table 2
  • Supply: Table 3
  • Changes in global SGA production estimates since August, (kt)
  • Price forecasts and world quarterly supply/demand balance – (kt)
  • Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
  • Global alumina production (kt)
  • Global primary aluminium production (kt)
  • Aluminium stock and premia (kt)
  • Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
  • Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)


  • Global supply-demand balance, 2008-2020
  • LME cash prices and cash-three month spreads (April-September 2016)
  • Global aluminium premia
  • Chinese auto production and sales
  • China home sales, starts and completions (floor space)
  • Japanese semis output
  • Non-residential building starts
  • Housing starts
  • China’s output recovering after July dip
  • Spot alumina prices, (fob $/t)
  • Chinese alumina production, (kt)
  • China’s bauxite imports, (Mt)
  • Demand: Image 6
  • Demand: Image 7
  • US imports of FRPs from China
  • SHFE/LME arbitrage for Chinese exporters

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