Commodity market report
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28 Pages

Global aluminium short-term outlook September 2016

Global aluminium short-term outlook September 2016

Report summary

The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. Our base case view of the market supply-demand balance continues to show a market that is in a comfortable oversupply position over the next few years. Despite an upward revision to our Chinese demand growth estimates, continued output build in China and slowing demand growth in key ROW markets will leave the market balance in surplus  over the next 3 years. We expect the scope for significant average annual price gains to be limited.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Global aluminium short-term outlook September 2016 PDF - 590.46 KB 28 Pages, 12 Tables, 16 Figures
  • Data tables aluminium STO September 2016.xls XLS - 504.00 KB


As global demand weakens and commodity prices fall, we're seeing a challenging environment in the metals and mining industry. Mining companies are increasingly coming under pressure to reduce operating costs, causing many to shift their strategic planning, delay new investments and look to long-term future growth.

This Aluminium Short Term Outlook report provides a detailed breakdown of global supply and demand balances in this market, as well as price forecasts.

Mining companies, investment banks and investors can use this report to understand the future direction of the ferrous and base metals market. It will also help you assess the impact of key industry issues and events on market balances and pricing.

From acquisitions to investments, Wood Mackenzie helps you plan, forecast and benchmark in the metals markets. Our proprietary database and analyst expertise combines robust production, consumption and pricing data with detailed analysis to identify market opportunities.

We give you a holistic view of the ferrous and base metals markets so you have the confidence to make strategic decisions.

  • Executive summary
  • Supply-demand balances
  • Demand
    • China
    • Japan
    • Taiwan
      • Taiwan aluminium sheet output
    • Europe
  • Supply
    • China’s output bounces higher in August after rain impacted July
    • Changes in aluminium production estimates since August, (kt)
    • Rest of World alumina balances, China imports and Spot prices, 2015-2018, (kt)

In this report there are 28 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Aluminium key forecasts
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Global supply-demand balance, 2008-2020
    • LME cash prices and cash-three month spreads (April-September 2016)
    • Global aluminium premia
  • Demand
    • Chinese auto production and sales
    • China home sales, starts and completions (floor space)
    • Japanese semis output
    • Non-residential building starts
    • Housing starts
    • Demand: Image 6
    • Demand: Image 7
    • US imports of FRPs from China
    • SHFE/LME arbitrage for Chinese exporters
  • Supply
    • Supply: Table 1
    • China’s output recovering after July dip
    • Supply: Table 2
    • Spot alumina prices, (fob $/t)
    • Chinese alumina production, (kt)
    • Supply: Table 3
    • China’s bauxite imports, (Mt)
    • Changes in global SGA production estimates since August, (kt)
    • Price forecasts and world quarterly supply/demand balance – (kt)
    • Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
    • Global alumina production (kt)
    • Global primary aluminium production (kt)
    • Aluminium stock and premia (kt)
    • Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
    • Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
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