The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two years. Our current assessment of aluminium market fundamentals points to a market that will be tight out to 2020. Our base case calls for a market that will be balanced in 2017 and 2018. This will be followed by deficits of around 200kt in 2019 and 2020. The risk is that we could see sharper deficits near term.