Commodity Market Report

Global aluminium short-term outlook September 2017

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29 September 2017

Global aluminium short-term outlook September 2017

Report summary

The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. Our current assessment of aluminium market fundamentals points to a market that will be tight out to 2020. Our base case calls for a market that will be balanced in 2017 and 2018. This will be followed by deficits of around 200kt in 2019 and 2020. The risk is that we could see sharper deficits near term.

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Supply-demand balances
    • China
      • Chinese manufacturing PMI
      • China property sales, starts and completions
      • Japanese semis output
    • North America
    • Europe
    • Summary of August production, kt
    • China smelter cuts and restarts in 2017
    • Spot alumina prices, (fob US$/t)
    • Rest of World alumina balances, China imports and Spot prices, 2016-2019, (kt)
    • China’s imported bauxite receipts, (Mt)

Tables and charts

This report includes 30 images and tables including:

  • Aluminium key forecasts
  • Global supply-demand balance, 2008-2020
  • Index of LME prices, January - September 2017
  • LME cash prices and cash-3 month spreads, July 2016 - September 2017
  • Global aluminium premia
  • Profitability of aluminium financing deals
  • Chinese exports into the US slowed in August
  • Chinese exports of semis into the EU
  • Supply: Table 1
  • Supply: Table 2
  • Supply: Image 1
  • Supply: Table 3
  • Replacement capacity status so far
  • Supply: Table 5
  • Supply: Image 2
  • Supply: Image 3
  • Planned China new capacity refinery projects in 2017, (kt)
  • Supply: Table 7
  • Supply: Image 4
  • Changes in global SGA production estimates since August, (kt)
  • Price forecasts and world quarterly supply/demand balance – (kt)
  • Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
  • Global alumina production (kt)
  • Global primary aluminium production (kt)
  • Aluminium stock and premia (kt)
  • Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
  • Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
  • Demand: Image 1
  • Demand: Image 2
  • Demand: Image 3

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Data tables aluminium STO September 2017.xls

    XLS 521.50 KB

  • Document

    Global aluminium short-term outlook September 2017

    PDF 725.42 KB

  • Document

    Global aluminium short-term outlook September 2017

    ZIP 910.22 KB

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