Global aluminium short-term outlook September 2022

Aluminium prices have been under pressure for most of September. A US dollar index at a 20-year high combined with slowing economic activity in China and the rest of the world dragged the official cash price down from close to US$2500/t on 28 August to below US$2100/t a month later. News of a possible change to the LME’s stance on Russian metal sent the LME aluminium price to an intra-day high of just over US$2300/t. At the time of writing, the price had retreated towards US$2200/t after the LME clarified that no decision had been made to launch a discussion paper on the warranting of Russian-origin metal. Nevertheless, we expect the price to remain under pressure from the continued flow of negative economic news.