Commodity Market Report
Global aluminium strategic planning outlook - Q1 2022
Report summary
The global aluminium strategic planning outlook provides a detailed forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals out to 2050. The near to medium term outlook for the aluminium market will be shaped by the fallout from the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Although too early to fully assess, we are likely to see supply distress despite high prices and premia and elevated market risks. We think that there will be a reshaping of aluminium trade and supply-chain flows. The net result will be a volatile pricing environment. The long-term outlook will be shaped by decarbonisation with new capacity having to jump through ever rising hurdles. There is some comfort for investors as our calculations point to the average long-run price being comfortably above the inventive price. Nevertheless, the requirement for additional units of primary aluminium will fall as scrap based secondary metal increasingly does the heavy lifting in satisfying future demand requirement.
Table of contents
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Aluminium long-term outlook
- Which countries are likely to host new aluminium capacity?
- The price to pay for carbon emissions
- Base case incentive price
- The long-term aluminium price
- Alumina long-term outlook
- Aluminium medium-term outlook
- Alumina medium-term outlook
-
Bauxite market outlook
- Main risks around our base case aluminium market outlook
- Scenario analysis
- Summary
- Changes to consumption forecasts since Q4 2021
-
Forecasts by region
- China
- Asia ex-China
- Japan
- Europe
- North America
- United States
-
Smelter production and capacity
- Summary
-
Aluminium production changes since the last quarter
- Global smelter production and capacity 2021-2050
- Asia
- Asia ex-China
- China
- Europe
- Latin America and the Caribbean
- Middle East
- Africa
-
Refinery production and capacity
- Summary
-
Alumina production changes since the last quarter
- Global refinery production and capacity 2021-2050
- Asia
- China
- Indonesia
- Europe
- Latin America and the Caribbean
-
Bauxite production
- Africa
- Asia (excl. China)
- China
- Latin America and the Caribbean
- Oceania
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Forecasting methodology
- Project Classification
- Supply disruptions
- Market-driven adjustment
-
Long term price, incentive price, risks and IRR methodology
- Incentive price
- Long term price
- Assumptions used to construct incentive prices
- Risks around the incentive price
- Bauxite pricing
Tables and charts
This report includes 45 images and tables including:
- Alumina incentive price, capital intensity and location
- Alumina incentive price set at US$350/t (Constant 2022 $)
- Average alumina prices, 1991-2040 and incentive price (US$/t)
- Global aluminium balance and prices
- Primary aluminium demand and capacity, 2010-2040, Mtpa
- Stock days of consumption and price
- Global supply-demand balance
- Russia alumina production and imports
- Stock days and price
- Smelter grade alumina balance
- Alumina demand and capacity, 2010-2040, Mtpa
- Global alumina balance and prices
- Global seaborne bauxite balance and prices
- Seaborne supply and demand, Mt (dry)
- Key bauxite ore routes freight forecasts
- Main changes in aluminium production since the previous quarter
- Main changes in alumina production since the previous quarter
- Global metallurgical bauxite supply (Mt)
- Global metallurgical bauxite requirement (Mt)
- Required rates of return by country used in the calculations
- Aluminium incentive price, capital intensity and location
- Long term price forecast at US$3000/t (real 2022 $) – Incentive price US$2400
- Average LME aluminium cash prices, 1991-2050 and long-term price (US$/t)
- Base case and low price scenario balances and stock days of consumption
- Base case and low price scenario prices (real 2022 US$/t)
- Global primary aluminium consumption (Mt)
- Changes to primary aluminium consumption since Q4 2021 (Mt)
- Global primary aluminium consumption growth prospects wane beyond 2033
- Global secondary consumption to grow by 3.5% p.a. to 2050
- Main changes to primary aluminium consumption forecast Q2 2020 vs Q3 2020 (kt)
- Secondary consumption to drive future total demand for aluminium
- Total consumption by end-use sector
- Non-residential construction growth set for 1.6% p.a. decline to 2040
- Total consumption by end-use sector in Asia ex-China
- Total consumption by end-use sector in Europe
- Total consumption by end-use sector in US
- Expected utilisation rate of Chinese aluminium smelters, 2019-2027 (Mt)
- Regional aluminium smelter production capability – Mt
- Potential projects in Southeast Asia
- China’s smelter capacity change in 2022-2027, ktpa
- Power contracts of select European smelters
- Spain energy supply breakdown 2021
- Regional alumina refinery production capability – Mt
- Regional seaborne bauxite supply, 2000-2040 CAGR 2000-2019, 2020-2025. 2026-2040
- Chinese imports of seaborne bauxite by province, 2021-2040
What's included
This report contains:
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