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Commodity Market Report 30 March 2022

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Report summary

Bulk steel alloy prices reached record levels in H2 2021 due to supply tightness and high costs. In China, supply cuts were initially driven by emissions-led output curbs and later power supply constraints. Output returned in Q4 2021 as power constraints were resolved, and prices have softened since. Conversely, international markets remain fraught with supply-side constraints and high energy costs. This, in part, reflects the blowback from the Ukraine-Russia conflict. Our base case across the bulk alloys assumes that these impacts will begin to settle in H2 2022. This will allow international alloy prices to soften. There is abundant capacity to meet demand across the bulk alloys and prices will revert to their long-term, cost-based fundamentals. For manganese alloys and ferrochrome, this will be at a higher plane compared to historical levels – in part, due to a higher ore price forecast.

Crude steel and stainless steel: China’s crude steel to peak this year
Moderate growth offered by stainless steel and alloy steels
Prices in western markets remain supported as China reverts to long-term fundamentals
China remains crucial to long-term supply, despite a scaledown in capacity
Silicon metal’s exposure to clean energy technologies means stronger growth than ferrosilicon
Regulatory intervention and coronavirus outbreak key risks in China, along with Ukraine-Russia crisis in global markets
Chromium ore
- Chromium ore price forecast
Ferrochrome
- Ferrochrome price forecast
- Risks to the base case
- Risks to forecast UG2 supply
- Developments in China’s ferrochrome industry
- South African ore export tax
- Stainless steel
Manganese
- Manganese ore
- Manganese ore price forecast
- Manganese alloy (SiMn and FeMn) market balance
- Manganese alloy price forecast
- Manganese metal market balance
- Key risks to the base case price forecasts
Silicon
- Ferrosilicon
- Ferrosilicon price forecast
- Silicon metal
- Silicon metal price forecast
- Key risks to ferrosilicon and silicon metal base case price forecasts
Crude steel trends
Stainless steel trends
Chromium
- Background
- Latest outlook
- Ferrochrome consumption
Manganese
Silicon
- Ferrosilicon
- Silicon metal
Chromium
- Chromium ore supply
- Chromium ore costs
- Ferrochrome supply
- Ferrochrome costs
Manganese
- Manganese ore supply
- Manganese ore costs
- Manganese alloy supply
- Manganese alloy costs
- Manganese metal supply outlook
Silicon and ferrosilicon
- Ferrosilicon
- Silicon metal

Tables and charts

This report includes 64 images and tables including:

Chromium ore supply-demand balance outlook
Base case outlook for ferrochrome supply
Ferrochrome supply-demand balance outlook

Ferrochrome supply-demand balance outlook with regional supply breakdown
Ferrosilicon and silicon metal consumption
Forecast crude steel production
Forecast crude stainless steel production
Outlook for global average manganese intensity of crude steel
Manganese alloy and metal consumption outlook
Manganese consumption by first use
Summary of manganese demand outlook by first use (kt Mn contained)
Chromium ore price outlook
South African primary 42-44% concentrate price and premia for other key ore prices, CIF China
High-carbon ferrochrome price outlook
China tender high-carbon ferrochrome price and premia on other key ferrochrome prices
Manganese ore supply-demand balance outlook
High-grade 44% manganese ore price outlook
Silicomanganese supply-demand balance outlook
High-carbon ferromanganese supply-demand balance outlook
Silicomanganese price outlook
High-carbon ferromanganese price outlook
Summary of forecast manganese alloy prices - US$/t
Manganese metal supply-demand balance outlook
Manganese metal and MC FeMn price outlook
Ferrosilicon supply-demand balance outlook
Ferrosilicon (75%) price price outlook
Forecast standard 75% ferrosilicon price forecast summary
Silicon metal supply-demand balance outlook
Silicon metal price outlook
Forecast silicon metal price forecast summary
Chromium consumption outlook to 2050 by first use
Outlook for chromium consumption in stainless steel by region
Outlook ferrochrome demand breakdown by application (kt 55% Cr basis)
Ferrosilicon consumption by application
Ferrosilicon consumption by steel type
Average forecast ferrosilicon demand by first use (kt)
Global share of ferrosilicon demand by region
Silicon metal consumption by application
Average forecast silicon metal demand by first use (kt)
Global share of silicon metal demand by region
Chromium ore and concentrate production by country, 2022e
Global chromite capacity total cash cost curve (by-product adjsuted), idle vs operational capacity, 2022e
Chromium ore supply outlook by region
Summary of long term chromium ore production forecast (kt)
Major chromium ore producer total cash costs, 2022e
Major chromium ore producer ex-works costs, 2022e
Top-10 high-carbon ferrochrome and charge chrome production capacity by company
High-carbon ferrochrome supply outlook
Summary of long term high-carbon ferrochrome production forecast (kt, gross weight)
Global cash cost curve for high-carbon ferrochrome and charge chrome, 2022e
High-carbon ferrochrome and charge chrome cash costs by region and component, 2022e
Manganese ore production, 2000 to 2021: Mt gross weight versus Mt contained Mn
Manganese ore supply outlook, by region
Cash cost curve for manganese ore (basis 44% Mn), 2022e
Silicomanganese supply outlook
High-carbon ferromanganese supply outlook
Global FOB cash cost curve for silicomanganese, including silicomanganese used in the production of medium- and low-carbon ferromanganese, 2022e
Global FOB cash cost curve for high-carbon ferromanganese, including high-carbon ferromanganese used in the production of medium- and low-carbon ferromanganese, 2022e
Ferrosilicon supply outlook
Global total ex-plant cash cost curve for ferrosilicon, by cost component, 2022e
Global total ex-plant cash cost curve for ferrosilicon, by region, 2022e
Silicon metal supply outlook
Global total ex-plant cash cost curve for silicon metal, by cost component, 2022e
Global total ex-plant cash cost curve for silicon metal, by region, 2022e