Global copper concentrates long-term outlook 2018 Report

Commodity Market Report 04 October 2018

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Report summary

The 2018 annual update of our Copper Concentrates long-term service is now available. The report includes detailed analysis of the current dynamics of the global and regional concentrate and blister markets. Reference data concerning historical TC/RCs, concentrate quality and specimen contracts is also provided. Related data files include production and supply/demand balance data together with concentrate and blister assays and allocation models.

Concentrate market
- Overview of recent concentrate market developments
- Outlook for additional copper in concentrates production
- Demand for primary smelter capacity - demand driven
- Outlook for long-term TC/RCs
Blister market
- Overview of recent blister market developments
- Outlook for long-term blister RCs
Concentrate market
- Copper in concentrate distribution: custom vs integrated
- 2017 custom concentrates: corporate sellers (equity basis)
Concentrate treatment and refining charge mechanisms
Variations in contracts
- Contract settlement mechanism (between miners and smelters)
- Regional variations in TC/RCs
Concentrate freight costs
- CIF point of delivery contracts
- CIF or parity contracts
- FOB freight allowance contracts
Metal import duties
- China-USA
- Japan
- Korea
- India
- Brazil
Blister market
- Resmelted blister market
SxEw production
- Impact of hydrometallurgy on the copper concentrate market
- Overview
- Technology
Trends in consumption of secondary copper
- Scrap outlook
- Scrap consumption
- Scrap categories
- Barley No 1 Copper Wire
- Berry No.1 Copper wire
- Birch No.2 Copper wire
- Candy No.1 Heavy Copper
- Cliff No. 2 Copper
- Clove No 1 Copper wire Nodules
- Cobra No. 2 Copper wire Nodules
- Cocoa Copper wire Nodules
- Dream Light Copper
- Drink Refinery Brass
- Drove Copper Bearing Scrap
- Druid Insulate Copper Wire Scrap
- Scrap definition
- Scrapping Rates
- Scrap Usage
Role of the trader
- Traded concentrates by source country - 2017(%)
Trader hedging
Mine supply
- Production capability 2008 - 2017
- Forecast mine production capability
- Probable new mine projects & expansions
- Possible new mine projects
Smelter supply
- Changes in base case copper smelter capacity 2016 - 2030 (kt Cu)
Copper refinery capacity (excluding mine SxEw operations)
Penalty elements
- Arsenic
- Bismuth
- Antimony
- Mercury
- Fluorine
Chinese import restrictions
Concentrate market outlook
Outlook for additional copper in concentrates production
Demand for primary smelter capacity – supply driven
Demand for primary smelter capacity – demand driven
Outlook for long-term TC/RCs
Blister market outlook
Regional analysis
- Latin America
- Peru
- Peru key points
- North America
- USA key points
- Canada
- Canada key points
- Mexico key points
- Asia
- China key points
- Japan
- Japan key points
- South Korea
- South Korea key points
- Indonesia key points
- India key points
- Russia and the Caspian
- Kazakhstan key points
- Russian Federation
- Russian Federation key points
- Europe
- Germany key points
- Finland
- Finland key points
- Spain
- Spain key points
- Sweden key points
- Africa
- Zambia key points
- Congo DR
- Congo DR key points
- South Africa
- South Africa key points
- Oceania
- Australia key points
- Papua New Guinea
Regional treatment and refining charges
Concentrate treatment charges
- The 2018 Mating Season andconcentrate contract terms
- The concentrate market in 2017 (year to September)
The blister anode market
- The 2018 Mating Season
- The blister market in 2018 (year to date)
Specimen concentrate contract
- Contract clauses
- Quantity and duration
- Quality
- Shipment
- Delivery
- Metal Payments
- Deductions
- Penalties
- Quotational Period
- Payment
- Weighing, Sampling and Moisture Determination
- Total or Partial Loss
- Assaying, assay exchange and umpire procedures
- Title and Risk
- Insurance
- Taxes and Duties
- Force Majeure
Specimen blister contract
- Contract clauses
- 1. Material - Product and Quality
- 2.Quantity and Duration
- 3.Delivery
- 4.Shipment
- 5.Price
- 6.Quotational Period
- 7.Refining Charge
- 8.Payment
- 9.Insurance
- 10.Title and Risk
- 11.Taxes and Duties
- 12.Assignment
- 13.Weighing, Sampling & Moisture Determination
- 14.Assaying
- 15.Force Majeure
- 16.Arbitration
- 17.Law & Jurisdiction
- 18.Definitions

Tables and charts

This report includes 80 images and tables including:

Copper in concentrate distribution: custom vs integrated
Spot TC/RCs (mines to traders) 2007-2017 (in nominal US$) - 30% Cu basis
Chinese copper concentrate imports and TCRCs 2017 (YTD)

Spot and long-term TC/RCs 1990-2018(25% copper concentrate)
Spot TC/RCs (mines to traders) 2007-2017 (in nominal US$)
Asian long-term TC/RCs 2007-2017 (in nominal US$)
Blister/Anode distribution: custom vs integrated
Internationally traded blister: buyers
2017 custom blister/anodes: corporate buyers (refineries only, equity basis)
2017 custom blister/anodes: buyers by asset (refineries only, equity basis)
Internationally traded blister: sellers
2017 Custom blister/anodes: corporate sellers
2017 Custom blister/anodes: sellers by asset
Growth in SxEw mine output 1990-2025 (kt Cu)
Trader hedging (simplified schematic)(10kt concentrates @ 30% Cu)
Global copper smelter capacity (kt Cu)
Global copper refinery capacity (kt Cu)
Changes in copper refinery capacity (kt Cu)
Typical penalty limits & charges
Chinese imported concentrates rejection limits
Concentrate availability & primary smelter capacity utilisation
Copper in concentrate availability relative to primary smelting capacity
Traded custom concentrate market balance vs TCRCs
Metal market requirements for Cu in concentrate output (Mt Cu)
Concentrate production as a percent of primary smelter capacity
Chinese primary smelter capacity additions
Smelter capacity utilisation rates to satisfy market demand (%) including projects
Regional concentrate TC/RCs and blister RCs in 2018
Regional concentrate TC/RCs and blister RCs in 2018 continued
Copper mine disruptions
Concentrate availability and primary smelter capacity utilisation
Traded custom concentrate market balance vs TCRCs
Metal market requirements for Cu in concentrate output (Mt Cu)
Smelter capacity utilisation rates to satisfy market demand (%) including projects
Blister/anode distribution: custom vs integrated
Blister RCs as a percentage of concentrate TC/RCs: 1980-2030
Internationally traded concentrates: buyers
2017 custom concentrates: corporate buyers (equity basis)
2017 custom concentrates: smelter purchases
Internationally traded concentrates: sellers
2017 custom concentrates: sellers
Precious metals differentials
Chile - Japan free trade agreement (cathode duties)
Chile - Korea free trade agreement (cathode duties)
Brazilian import duties
Smelters consuming resmelted blister in 2017 (kt Cu)
World copper scrap consumption 1990-2025 (kt Cu)
Total scrap consumption by country/region 1990-2017 (%)
Global copper in concentrate output 2008-2017 (kt Cu)
Disruptions to copper in concentrate mine supply 2007-2017
Changes in base case copper in concentrate production capability
Chile
USA
Mexico
China
Indonesia
India
Kazakhstan
Germany
Sweden
Zambia
Australia
Import/export capability - concentrates (kt Cu) – ranked on 2016
Import/export capability - blister (kt Cu) - ranked on 2016
Concentrate Term Contracts & Merchant Spot Quotes - 2018 YTD
Chinese copper concentrate imports & TC/RCs 2017 YTD
Blister market – term contracts & 2018 YTD spot quotes