Commodity Market Report
Global copper investment horizon outlook - Q3 2023
Report summary
Volatility and uncertainty will be a feature of the copper market over the short-to-medium-term shaped by the impact of the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war. Manufacturing, the key driver for copper demand, is suffering an extended slump while labour markets and services enjoy a period of buoyancy. For now, demand from energy transition-related end-uses and a recovering auto sector appear to be propping up cathode consumption. Although we are entering an uncertain period for copper, with declining prices and emerging surpluses, projects are still required to come on stream. Indeed beyond 2025, and against a backdrop of still steady demand, the pace of base case mine supply growth starts to falter. Given the long lead times required to bring new capacity into production, producers must act now to avoid significant shortfalls in the market. Crucially, scrap will also need to play a more significant role if the industry is to meet its decarbonisation goals and aspirations.
Table of contents
-
Copper medium-term outlook
- Investment Horizon – Medium-term supply considerations
- Long-term outlook
- Main risks around our base case copper market outlook
- Scenario analysis
- Overview
- Changes since the last quarter
- China
- Europe
- North America
- Latin America
- Asia ex-China
- Rest of world
-
Trends in consumption of secondary copper
- China scrap policy
- Global scrap outlook
-
Overview and supply changes since the last quarter
- Mine projects
- Base Case
- Probable
- Possible
- Mine Disruption Allowance
-
Regional mine production capability
- Summary
- Africa
- Asia (excluding China)
- China
- Europe
- Latin America and the Caribbean
- Middle East
- North America
- Oceania
- Russia and the Caspian
-
Regional smelter production capability
- Summary
- Africa
- Asia (excluding China)
- China
- Europe
- Latin America & Caribbean
- Middle East
- North America
- Oceania
- Russia and the Caspian
-
Regional refinery production capability
- Summary
- Africa
- Asia (excluding China)
- China
- Europe
- Latin America & Caribbean
- Middle East
- North America
- Oceania
- Russia and the Caspian
Tables and charts
This report includes 48 images and tables including:
- Surpluses emerging in the global metal market over the short term
- Total copper consumption by property 2000-2033
- End-use copper demand from green sectors
- Total copper semis production 2000-2033
- Regional refined copper consumption 2000-2033
- Risks to copper consumption from passenger battery EVs
- Total copper consumption by industry sector 2000-2033
- Changes in refined copper consumption by region
- Regional refined copper consumption – kt
- Wind and solar power surpass the 1,200 GW target five years ahead of the government plan
- Mexican share of regional refined consumption to rise
- Refined copper consumption forecast regional breakdown 2020-33
- Indexed Copper Consumption Growth - 2010-2033
- Quantity of projects sanctioned
- New frontiers opening up (project capability), 2032
- Global supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
- Stock days of consumption and price
- Global copper production and primary demand
- Price scenarios US$/t (real 2023$)
- Price scenarios
- New standards for renewable copper material
- New standards for renewable brass material
- Global copper scrap use as a percentage share of total demand, 2000-2033
- Chart: Mine disruptions summary
- Disruptions summary (copper in concentrate and SxEw cathode)
- Regional copper mine production - kt Cu
- Chart: Africa copper mine production - Mt Cu
- Chart: Asia (excl. China) copper mine production - Mt Cu
- Chart: Europe copper mine production - Mt Cu
- Chart: Latin America and the Caribbean copper mine production - Mt Cu
- Chart: Middle East copper mine production - Mt Cu
- Chart: North America copper mine production - Mt Cu
- Chart: Oceania copper mine production - Mt Cu
- Chart: Russia and the Caspian copper mine production - Mt Cu
- Copper smelter production capability (kt Cu)
- Chart: Africa copper smelter production capability - Mt Cu
- Chart: Asia (excl. China) copper smelter production capability - Mt Cu
- Chart: Europe copper smelter production capability - Mt Cu
- Chart: Latin America and the Caribbean copper smelter production capability - Mt Cu
- Chart: North America copper smelter production capability - Mt Cu
- Chart: Russia and the Caspian copper smelter production capability - Mt Cu
- Regional copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
- Chart: Africa copper refinery production capability - Mt Cu
- Chart: Asia (excl. China) copper refinery production capability - Mt Cu
- Chart: Europe copper refinery production capability - Mt Cu
- Chart: Latin America and the Caribbean copper refinery production capability - Mt Cu
- Chart: North America copper refinery production capability - Mt Cu
- Chart: Russia and the Caspian copper refinery production capability - Mt Cu
What's included
This report contains:
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