Commodity market report
| |
47 Pages

Global copper long-term outlook Q1 2014


Global copper long-term outlook Q1 2014

Report summary

Mine production capability is forecast to continue the upward trend of 2013. As this will exceed solid global consumption growth, the net effect will be for several more years of surpluses with total inventories peaking in 2016. Prices will yield to reach a low in 2016 of $5952/t ($2.70/lb) in 2014$. With few new sizeable projects on the horizon, there will be insufficient material to prevent a deficit emerging by 2018. This shift in the market profile will encourage a recovery in prices.

What's included?

This report includes 10 file(s)

  • Global copper long-term outlook Q1 2014 PDF - 693.26 KB 47 Pages, 42 Tables, 10 Figures
  • Demand main changes copper LTO Q1 2014.xls XLS - 132.50 KB
  • Equity Production copper LTO Q1 2014.xls XLS - 7.26 MB
  • Market balance and prices copper LTO Q1 2014.xls XLS - 421.50 KB
  • Mine analysis copper LTO Q1 2014.xls XLS - 2.11 MB
  • Production rankings copper LTO Q1 2014.xls XLS - 64.00 KB
  • Refinery analysis copper LTO Q1 2014.xls XLS - 1.28 MB
  • Smelter analysis copper LTO Q1 2014.xls XLS - 1.51 MB
  • Supply main changes copper LTO Q1 2014.xls XLS - 114.50 KB
  • Slide pack copper LTO Q1 2014.pdf PDF - 463.25 KB

Description

As global demand weakens and commodity prices fall, we're seeing a challenging environment in the metals and mining industry. Mining companies are increasingly coming under pressure to reduce operating costs, causing many to shift their strategic planning, delay new investments and look to long-term future growth.

This Copper Long Term Outlook report provides a detailed breakdown of global supply and demand balances in this market, as well as price forecasts.

Mining companies, investment banks and investors can use this report to understand the future direction of the ferrous and base metals market. It will also help you assess the impact of key industry issues and events on market balances and pricing.

From acquisitions to investments, Wood Mackenzie helps you plan, forecast and benchmark in the metals markets. Our proprietary database and analyst expertise combines robust production, consumption and pricing data with detailed analysis to identify market opportunities.

We give you a holistic view of the ferrous and base metals markets so you have the confidence to make strategic decisions.

  • Executive summary
  • Demand
    • China
    • North America
    • North American refined copper consumption – kt
    • Latin America
    • Latin America refined copper consumption - kt
    • Europe
    • Japan
    • Asia (excluding China & Japan)
    • Asia (excluding China & Japan) refined copper consumption – kt
    • Middle East
    • Middle East refined copper consumption - kt
    • Russia & the Caspian
    • Africa and Oceania
    • Average annual global refined copper consumption - kt
    • Scrap definition
    • Scrapping rates
    • Scrap usage
    • Scrap consumption
    • Scrap outlook
  • Supply
    • Copper mine project changes since Q4 2013
      • Base Case
      • Highly Probable
      • Probable
      • Possible
    • Copper smelter/refinery project changes since Q4 2013
    • Disruptions
    • Regional mine production capability
      • Summary
      • Base case regional copper mine production capability - kt Cu
      • Latin America and the Caribbean
      • Oceania
      • Africa
      • Europe
      • China
      • Requirement for new mine capacity
    • Regional smelter production capability
      • Summary
      • Copper smelter production capability (kt Cu)
      • Africa
      • Asia (excl. China)
      • China
      • Latin America & Caribbean
      • Europe
      • Oceania
      • Russia and the Caspian
    • Regional refinery production capability
      • Summary
      • China
      • Asia (excluding China)
      • Europe
      • Africa
      • Latin America & Caribbean
      • North America
      • Middle East copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
      • Oceania
      • Oceania copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
      • Russia and the Caspian
  • Supply-demand balances

In this report there are 52 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
  • Demand
    • Demand: Table 1
    • Demand: Table 2
    • Demand: Image 1
    • Demand: Table 3
    • Latin America refined copper consumption and direct use of scrap- kt
    • Demand: Table 4
    • European passenger car and commercial vehicle production - Millions
    • Europe refined copper consumption - kt
    • Japan refined copper consumption – kt
    • Demand: Table 7
    • Demand: Table 8
    • Russia & the Caspian refined copper consumption - kt
    • Demand: Table 10
    • Indexed copper consumption growth - (2005=100)
    • Demand: Image 5
    • Global copper scrap consumption 2000-2030 -kt Cu
  • Supply
    • Disruptions Summary (copper in concentrate plus SxEw cathode)
    • Supply: Table 2
    • Latin America & Caribbean copper mine production capability - kt Cu
    • Asia (excl. China) copper mine production capability - kt Cu
    • North America copper mine production capability - kt Cu
    • Oceania copper mine production capability - kt Cu
    • Africa copper mine production capability - kt Cu
    • Europe copper mine production capability - kt Cu
    • China copper mine production capability - kt Cu
    • Middle East copper mine production capability - kt Cu
    • Russia and the Caspian mine production capability – kt Cu
    • Incremental Cu market demand and highly probable, probable and possible Cu project production (kt Cu)
    • Global market demand for mine output
    • Supply: Table 13
    • Africa copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
    • Asia (excl. China) copper smelter production capability - kt
    • China copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
    • Latin America & Caribbean copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
    • Europe copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
    • North America copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
    • Middle East copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
    • Oceania copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
    • Russia and the Caspian copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
    • Regional copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
    • China copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
    • Asia (excl. China) copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
    • Europe copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
    • Africa copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
    • Latin America and the Caribbean copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
    • North America copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
    • Supply: Table 30
    • Supply: Table 31
    • Russia and the Caspian copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Monthly total exchange stocks and prices
    • Global metal balances & LME copper price (2014$)
    • LME copper prices
Requester's name : .............
Department : .............
Authoriser's Name : .............
Authoriser's signature : .............
Date : .............
Cost Centre : .............

Questions about this report?

Frequently Asked Questions

Mailenquiries@woodmac.com
  • Europe: +44 131 243 4699
  • Americas: +1 713 470 1900
  • Asia Pacific: +61 2 8224 8898
contact us

Why Wood Mackenzie?

Wood Mackenzie, a Verisk Analytics business, has been a trusted source of commercial intelligence for the world's natural resources sector for more than 40 years, empowering clients to make better strategic decisions with objective analysis and advice.

We work across every sector of oil, gas, power, renewables, chemicals, metals and mining, covering more than 150 countries. Our proprietary data and models are at the core of everything we do, ensuring our independent asset and company valuations are thoroughly robust and that we offer an accurate forward-looking view of economic indicators such as market supply, demand and price trends.

Our 500+ analysts are based in the regions they cover, cultivating an unrivalled depth of understanding to help clients accurately identify new opportunities, define their strategy and improve business performance.

At every stage, our teams readily collaborate and share their insight to provide an integrated perspective across entire industries. It is this unique and rigorous analytical approach that ensures we are recognised as the industry standard by the world’s most innovative organisations.