Commodity Market Report

Global copper long-term outlook Q1 2016

Get this report

$9,100

You can pay by card or invoice

Contact us

Submit your details to receive further information about this report.

For details on how your data is used and stored, see our Privacy Notice.
 

- Available as part of a subscription
- FAQ's about online orders

24 March 2016

Global copper long-term outlook Q1 2016

Report summary

The copper metal market service long term outlook (LTO) is published quarterly and provides a detailed forecast of copper supply and demand fundamentals out to 2035. Prices look set to continue their downward trend on an average annual basis in 2016, weighed down by persistent market surpluses and elevated global inventories, despite further price-driven production. Beyond 2019, we expect prices to trade higher, reacting positively to falling inventories and emerging deficits. Copper will rally to a peak in 2022 as stocks fall below equilibrium levels, reflecting the lagged effect of developing/commissioning additional mine production. As new supply enters the market and surpluses develop, we expect LME quotes to ease lower to reach our forecast long-term incentive level price by 2025.

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
    • Overview
      • Regional refined copper consumption, 2000 - 2035 kt Cu
    • China
      • 2013 urban distribution network density (length of 10 kV lines per square km urban area)
      • AC penetration in urban households improves towards saturation in 2012
      • Growth in traditional machinery end-use sector trends lower compared to IP growth
      • Chinese refined copper consumption - kt
    • North America
      • Mexico to drive North American vehicle production growth
      • North American refined copper consumption – kt
    • Latin America
      • Latin America refined copper consumption - kt
    • Europe
      • Europe refined copper consumption - kt
    • Japan
      • Japan refined copper consumption – kt
    • Asia (excluding China & Japan)
      • Asia (excluding China & Japan) refined copper consumption – kt
    • Russia & the Caspian
      • Russia & the Caspian refined copper consumption - kt
    • Rest of world
    • Trends in consumption of secondary copper
      • Scrap definition
      • Scrapping rates
      • Scrap usage
      • Scrap consumption
      • Scrap outlook
    • Principal uses of copper
    • Copper mine project changes since Q4 2015
      • Base Case
      • Highly Probable
      • Probable
      • Possible
    • Copper smelter/refinery project changes since Q4 2015
    • Disruptions
    • Regional mine production capability
      • Summary
      • Latin America and the Caribbean
      • Asia (excl. China)
      • North America
      • Oceania
      • Africa
      • Europe
      • China
      • Middle East
      • Russia and the Caspian
      • Requirement for new mine capacity
    • Regional smelter production capability
      • Summary
      • Africa
      • Asia (excl. China)
      • China
      • Latin America & Caribbean
      • Europe
      • North America
      • Middle East
      • Oceania
      • Russia and the Caspian
    • Regional refinery production capability
      • Summary
      • China
      • Asia (excluding China)
      • Europe
      • Africa
        • Latin America & Caribbean
      • North America
      • Middle East
      • Oceania
      • Russia and the Caspian
    • Changes to the market outlook since Q4 2015
      • Monthly total exchange stocks and prices
      • Global metal balances & LME copper price (2016$)
      • LME copper prices

Tables and charts

This report includes 65 images and tables including:

  • China copper consumption breakdown
  • 2015 China end-use copper demand (excl. semis trade)
  • China end-use copper demand (excl. semis trade)
  • Ageing population to impact Japanese consumption prospects
  • Asia Ex-China total copper consumption growth to be dominated by ASEAN and India
  • Middle East refined copper consumption - kt
  • Other refined copper consumption - kt
  • Indexed copper consumption growth - (2005=100)
  • Average annual global refined copper consumption - kt
  • Total copper consumption by industry sector, 2000 - 2035 kt Cu
  • Total copper semis production, 2000 - 2035 kt Cu
  • Disruptions Summary (copper in concentrate plus SxEw cathode)
  • Demand: Image 1
  • Total copper consumption by property, 2000 - 2035 kt Cu
  • Regional refined copper consumption – kt
  • Demand: Image 5
  • Copper demand for property renovation increases over time
  • Demand: Image 7
  • Demand: Image 8
  • Auto penetration continues to grow
  • EV share to increase significantly
  • Demand: Table 3
  • Demand: Image 11
  • Demand: Table 4
  • Demand: Table 5
  • Demand: Table 6
  • Demand: Table 7
  • Demand: Table 8
  • Demand: Table 9
  • Global copper scrap consumption, 2000-2030 kt Cu
  • Base case regional copper mine production capability - kt Cu
  • Latin America & Caribbean copper mine production capability - kt Cu
  • Asia (excl. China) copper mine production capability - kt Cu
  • North America copper mine production capability - kt Cu
  • Oceania copper mine production capability - kt Cu
  • Africa copper mine production capability - kt Cu
  • Europe copper mine production capability - kt Cu
  • China copper mine production capability - kt Cu
  • Middle East copper mine production capability - kt Cu
  • Russia and the Caspian mine production capability – kt Cu
  • Incremental Cu market demand and highly probable, probable and possible Cu project production (kt Cu)
  • Global market demand for mine output
  • Copper smelter production capability (kt Cu)
  • Africa copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
  • Asia (excl. China) copper smelter production capability - kt
  • China copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
  • Latin America & Caribbean copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
  • Europe copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
  • North America copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
  • Middle East copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
  • Oceania copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
  • Russia and the Caspian copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
  • Regional copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
  • China copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
  • Asia (excl. China) copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
  • Europe copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
  • Africa copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
  • North America copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
  • Middle East copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
  • Oceania copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
  • Russia and the Caspian copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 1
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 2
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 3
  • Latin America and the Caribbean copper refinery production capability - kt Cu

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Copper Tables Q1 2016.pdf

    PDF 1.83 MB

  • Document

    Slide pack copper LTO Q1 2016.pdf

    PDF 777.10 KB

  • Document

    Demand main changes copper LTO Q1 2016.xls

    XLS 146.00 KB

  • Document

    Demand analysis copper LTO Q1 2016.xls

    XLS 852.50 KB

  • Document

    Supply main changes copper LTO Q1 2016.xls

    XLS 126.00 KB

  • Document

    Production rankings copper LTO Q1 2016.xls

    XLS 64.00 KB

  • Document

    Equity Production copper LTO Q1 2016.xls

    XLS 9.65 MB

  • Document

    Mine analysis copper LTO Q1 2016.xls

    XLS 2.53 MB

  • Document

    Smelter analysis copper LTO Q1 2016.xls

    XLS 1.47 MB

  • Document

    Refinery analysis copper LTO Q1 2016.xls

    XLS 1.15 MB

  • Document

    Market balance and prices copper LTO Q1 2016.xls

    XLS 435.50 KB

  • Document

    Global copper long-term outlook Q1 2016

    PDF 740.34 KB

  • Document

    Global copper long-term outlook Q1 2016

    ZIP 6.81 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 81.43 KB

  • Document

    Demand

    PDF 358.04 KB

  • Document

    Supply

    PDF 272.57 KB

  • Document

    Supply-demand balances

    PDF 120.41 KB

Other reports you may be interested in

Browse reports by Industry Sector