Commodity market report

Global copper long-term outlook Q1 2017

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Report summary

The copper metal market service long term outlook (LTO) is published quarterly and provides a detailed forecast of copper supply and demand fundamentals out to 2035. 2017 looks set to build on last year's turning point for copper. We expect the market to register a small deficit and stocks to be drawn lower. Stoppages at two of the largest mines have buoyed prices through Q1 2017 supporting a higher annual average forecast for the year. However any significant surge in prices is unlikely against a backdrop of rising interest rates in the USA and an appreciating US dollar. Over the next several years prices will drift gently higher given no material change in cathode stock. By 2020 as liquid stocks are eroded sharply lower we would expect a sizeable reaction in prices with copper set to spike by 2023. This will encourage new supply to the market and as surpluses emerge we expect LME quotes to subsequently trend lower to reach our forecast long term incentive level price by 2026.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Copper Tables Q1 2017.pdf

    PDF 1.81 MB

  • Document

    LTO Slidepack Copper Q1 2017.pdf

    PDF 875.85 KB

  • Document

    Demand main changes copper LTO Q1 2017.xls

    XLS 156.50 KB

  • Document

    Demand analysis copper LTO Q1 2017.xls

    XLS 1.02 MB

  • Document

    Supply main changes copper LTO Q1 2017.xls

    XLS 141.00 KB

  • Document

    Production rankings copper LTO Q1 2017.xls

    XLS 75.00 KB

  • Document

    Equity Production copper LTO Q1 2017.xls

    XLS 8.35 MB

  • Document

    Mine analysis copper LTO Q1 2017.xls

    XLS 2.67 MB

  • Document

    Smelter analysis copper LTO Q1 2017.xls

    XLS 1.49 MB

  • Document

    Refinery analysis copper LTO Q1 2017.xls

    XLS 1.28 MB

  • Document

    Market balance and prices copper LTO Q1 2017.xls

    XLS 487.00 KB

  • Document

    Global copper long-term outlook Q1 2017

    PDF 717.23 KB

  • Document

    Global copper long-term outlook Q1 2017

    ZIP 6.85 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 83.04 KB

  • Document

    Demand

    PDF 327.44 KB

  • Document

    Supply

    PDF 273.09 KB

  • Document

    Supply-demand balances

    PDF 126.54 KB

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Demand
  • Supply
  • Supply-demand balances

Tables and charts

This report includes 61 images and tables including:

Images

  • Regional refined copper consumption, 2000 - 2035 kt Cu
  • Total copper consumption by property, 2000 - 2035 kt Cu
  • EV and hybrid autos contribute to copper demand in the auto industry
  • Brazil infrastructure quality
  • European vehicle production
  • ASEAN additions to urban population
  • Indexed copper consumption growth - (2010=100)
  • Average annual global refined copper consumption - kt
  • Total copper consumption by industry sector, 2000 - 2035 kt Cu
  • Total copper semis production, 2000 - 2035 kt Cu
  • Global copper scrap consumption, 2000-2030 kt Cu
  • Global market demand for mine output
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 1
  • Nine key copper producers - share/commodity price (US $ eq)
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 3
  • LME copper prices

Tables

  • Regional refined copper consumption – kt
  • China copper consumption breakdown
  • Demand: Table 3
  • Demand: Table 4
  • Chinese refined copper consumption - kt
  • North American refined copper consumption – kt
  • Latin America refined copper consumption - kt
  • Japan refined copper consumption – kt
  • Asia (excluding China & Japan) refined copper consumption – kt
  • Russia & the Caspian refined copper consumption - kt
  • Middle East refined copper consumption - kt
  • Other refined copper consumption - kt
  • Disruptions Summary (copper in concentrate plus SxEw cathode)
  • Demand: Table 8
  • Base case regional copper mine production capability - kt Cu
  • Latin America & Caribbean copper mine production capability - kt Cu
  • Asia (excl. China) copper mine production capability - kt Cu
  • North America copper mine production capability - kt Cu
  • Oceania copper mine production capability - kt Cu
  • Africa copper mine production capability - kt Cu
  • Europe copper mine production capability - kt Cu
  • China copper mine production capability - kt Cu
  • Middle East copper mine production capability - kt Cu
  • Russia and the Caspian mine production capability – kt Cu
  • Incremental Cu market demand and highly probable, probable and possible Cu project production (kt Cu)
  • Copper smelter production capability (kt Cu)
  • Africa copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
  • Asia (excl. China) copper smelter production capability - kt
  • China copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
  • Latin America and the Caribbean copper smelter production - kt Cu
  • Europe copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
  • North America copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
  • Middle East copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
  • Oceania copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
  • Russia and the Caspian copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
  • Regional copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
  • China copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
  • Asia (excl. China) copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
  • Europe copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
  • Africa copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
  • Latin America and the Caribbean copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
  • North America copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
  • Middle East copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
  • Oceania copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
  • Russia and the Caspian copper refinery production capability - kt Cu

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