Commodity Market Report

Global copper long-term outlook Q1 2017

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24 March 2017

Global copper long-term outlook Q1 2017

Report summary

The copper metal market service long term outlook (LTO) is published quarterly and provides a detailed forecast of copper supply and demand fundamentals out to 2035. 2017 looks set to build on last year's turning point for copper. We expect the market to register a small deficit and stocks to be drawn lower. Stoppages at two of the largest mines have buoyed prices through Q1 2017, supporting a higher annual average forecast for the year. However, any significant surge in prices is unlikely against a backdrop of rising interest rates in the USA and an appreciating US dollar. Over the next several years, prices will drift gently higher given no material change in cathode stock. By 2020, as liquid stocks are eroded sharply lower, we would expect a sizeable reaction in prices, with copper set to spike by 2023. This will encourage new supply to the market and as surpluses emerge, we expect LME quotes to subsequently trend lower to reach our forecast long-term incentive level price by 2026.  

Why buy this report?

The last quarter of 2016 saw a sharp rally in copper prices, marking a turning point for the metal. Our comprehensive long-term outlook comments on whether this rally can be sustained. With our latest copper market forecasts, our report allows you to:

  • Understand evolving supply-demand fundamentals and supply-demand balance for copper
  • Analyse the impact of changing market dynamics - including electric vehicles and hybrid autos - on copper demand in the auto industry
  • Identify geopolitical and macro-economic risks to copper demand growth

This long-term outlook on copper provides detailed forecast of supply and demand fundamentals over 20 years. It includes:

  • An integrated outlook that includes cross-sector market analysis
  • Data and visualisations on supply, demand, price and more
  • Overview of key project changes since Q4 2016 analysis
  • Overview of investment fundamentals that incentivise market growth

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
    • Overview
    • China
    • North America
    • Latin America
    • Europe
      • Europe refined copper consumption - kt
    • Japan
    • Asia (excluding China & Japan)
    • Russia & the Caspian
    • Rest of world
    • Trends in consumption of secondary copper
      • Scrap definition
      • Scrapping rates
      • Scrap usage
      • Scrap consumption
      • Scrap outlook
    • Principal uses of copper
    • Copper mine project changes since Q4 2016
      • Base Case
      • Highly Probable
      • Probable
      • Possible
    • Copper smelter/refinery project changes since Q4 2016
    • Disruptions
    • Regional mine production capability
      • Summary
      • Latin America and the Caribbean
      • Asia (excl. China)
      • North America
      • Oceania
      • Africa
      • Europe
      • China
      • Middle East
      • Russia and the Caspian
      • Requirement for new mine capacity
    • Regional smelter production capability
      • Summary
      • Africa
      • Asia (excl. China)
      • China
      • Latin America & Caribbean
      • Europe
      • North America
      • Middle East
      • Oceania
      • Russia and the Caspian
    • Regional refinery production capability
      • Summary
      • China
      • Asia (excluding China)
      • Europe
      • Africa
      • Latin America & Caribbean
      • North America
      • Middle East
      • Oceania
      • Russia and the Caspian
    • Changes to the market outlook since Q4 2016
      • Monthly total exchange stocks and prices
      • Global metal balances & LME copper price (2017$)

Tables and charts

This report includes 61 images and tables including:

  • Regional refined copper consumption, 2000 - 2035 kt Cu
  • Total copper consumption by property, 2000 - 2035 kt Cu
  • Regional refined copper consumption – kt
  • China copper consumption breakdown
  • Demand: Table 3
  • EV and hybrid autos contribute to copper demand in the auto industry
  • Demand: Table 4
  • Chinese refined copper consumption - kt
  • North American refined copper consumption – kt
  • Brazil infrastructure quality
  • Latin America refined copper consumption - kt
  • European vehicle production
  • Japan refined copper consumption – kt
  • ASEAN additions to urban population
  • Asia (excluding China & Japan) refined copper consumption – kt
  • Russia & the Caspian refined copper consumption - kt
  • Middle East refined copper consumption - kt
  • Other refined copper consumption - kt
  • Indexed copper consumption growth - (2010=100)
  • Average annual global refined copper consumption - kt
  • Total copper consumption by industry sector, 2000 - 2035 kt Cu
  • Total copper semis production, 2000 - 2035 kt Cu
  • Disruptions Summary (copper in concentrate plus SxEw cathode)
  • Demand: Table 8
  • Global copper scrap consumption, 2000-2030 kt Cu
  • Base case regional copper mine production capability - kt Cu
  • Latin America & Caribbean copper mine production capability - kt Cu
  • Asia (excl. China) copper mine production capability - kt Cu
  • North America copper mine production capability - kt Cu
  • Oceania copper mine production capability - kt Cu
  • Africa copper mine production capability - kt Cu
  • Europe copper mine production capability - kt Cu
  • China copper mine production capability - kt Cu
  • Middle East copper mine production capability - kt Cu
  • Russia and the Caspian mine production capability – kt Cu
  • Incremental Cu market demand and highly probable, probable and possible Cu project production (kt Cu)
  • Global market demand for mine output
  • Copper smelter production capability (kt Cu)
  • Africa copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
  • Asia (excl. China) copper smelter production capability - kt
  • China copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
  • Latin America and the Caribbean copper smelter production - kt Cu
  • Europe copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
  • North America copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
  • Middle East copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
  • Oceania copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
  • Russia and the Caspian copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
  • Regional copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
  • China copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
  • Asia (excl. China) copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
  • Europe copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
  • Africa copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
  • Latin America and the Caribbean copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
  • North America copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
  • Middle East copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
  • Oceania copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
  • Russia and the Caspian copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 1
  • Nine key copper producers - share/commodity price (US $ eq)
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 3
  • LME copper prices

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Copper Tables Q1 2017.pdf

    PDF 1.81 MB

  • Document

    LTO Slidepack Copper Q1 2017.pdf

    PDF 875.85 KB

  • Document

    Demand main changes copper LTO Q1 2017.xls

    XLS 156.50 KB

  • Document

    Demand analysis copper LTO Q1 2017.xls

    XLS 1.02 MB

  • Document

    Supply main changes copper LTO Q1 2017.xls

    XLS 141.00 KB

  • Document

    Production rankings copper LTO Q1 2017.xls

    XLS 75.00 KB

  • Document

    Equity Production copper LTO Q1 2017.xls

    XLS 8.35 MB

  • Document

    Mine analysis copper LTO Q1 2017.xls

    XLS 2.67 MB

  • Document

    Smelter analysis copper LTO Q1 2017.xls

    XLS 1.49 MB

  • Document

    Refinery analysis copper LTO Q1 2017.xls

    XLS 1.28 MB

  • Document

    Market balance and prices copper LTO Q1 2017.xls

    XLS 487.00 KB

  • Document

    Global copper long-term outlook Q1 2017

    PDF 717.23 KB

  • Document

    Global copper long-term outlook Q1 2017

    ZIP 6.85 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 83.04 KB

  • Document

    Demand

    PDF 327.44 KB

  • Document

    Supply

    PDF 273.09 KB

  • Document

    Supply-demand balances

    PDF 126.54 KB