The copper metal market service long term outlook (LTO) is published quarterly and provides a detailed forecast of copper supply and demand fundamentals out to 2035. 2017 looks set to build on last year's turning point for copper. We expect the market to register a small deficit and stocks to be drawn lower. Stoppages at two of the largest mines have buoyed prices through Q1 2017, supporting a higher annual average forecast for the year. However, any significant surge in prices is unlikely against a backdrop of rising interest rates in the USA and an appreciating US dollar. Over the next several years, prices will drift gently higher given no material change in cathode stock. By 2020, as liquid stocks are eroded sharply lower, we would expect a sizeable reaction in prices, with copper set to spike by 2023. This will encourage new supply to the market and as surpluses emerge, we expect LME quotes to subsequently trend lower to reach our forecast long-term incentive level price by 2026.
Why buy this report?
The last quarter of 2016 saw a sharp rally in copper prices, marking a turning point for the metal. Our comprehensive long-term outlook comments on whether this rally can be sustained. With our latest copper market forecasts, our report allows you to:
Understand evolving supply-demand fundamentals and supply-demand balance for copper
Analyse the impact of changing market dynamics - including electric vehicles and hybrid autos - on copper demand in the auto industry
Identify geopolitical and macro-economic risks to copper demand growth
This long-term outlook on copper provides detailed forecast of supply and demand fundamentals over 20 years. It includes:
An integrated outlook that includes cross-sector market analysis
Data and visualisations on supply, demand, price and more
Overview of key project changes since Q4 2016 analysis
Overview of investment fundamentals that incentivise market growth