Commodity Market Report

Global copper long-term outlook Q1 2018

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Report summary

The copper metal market service long term outlook (LTO) is published quarterly and provides a detailed forecast of copper supply and demand fundamentals out to 2035. The price recovery that emerged from mid-2016 has started to encourage project development with significant brownfield and greenfield tonnage shifted from our probable and into our base case category. However, producers still remain cautious about allocating capital for growth and new supply still needs to be approved if it is to keep pace with demand. Indeed, beyond 2021, the pace of mine supply growth starts to slow more markedly. A strong recovery in prices should provide sufficient confidence to encourage producers to develop the larger (greenfield) projects that are needed to close the supply gap that will emerge. As this new supply comes on stream and surpluses develop, we expect LME quotes to trend lower to reach our forecast long-term incentive level price by 2028.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Global copper long-term outlook Q1 2018

    ZIP 7.33 MB

  • Document

    Copper Tables Q1 2018.pdf

    PDF 1.85 MB

  • Document

    Slide pack copper LTO Q1 2018.pdf

    PDF 743.02 KB

  • Document

    Demand main changes copper LTO Q1 2018.xls

    XLS 157.50 KB

  • Document

    Demand analysis copper LTO Q1 2018.xls

    XLS 1.09 MB

  • Document

    Supply main changes copper LTO Q1 2018.xls

    XLS 134.00 KB

  • Document

    Production rankings copper LTO Q1 2018.xls

    XLS 71.50 KB

  • Document

    Equity Production copper LTO Q1 2018.xls

    XLS 9.92 MB

  • Document

    Mine analysis copper LTO Q1 2018.xls

    XLS 2.59 MB

  • Document

    Smelter analysis copper LTO Q1 2018.xls

    XLS 1.49 MB

  • Document

    Refinery analysis copper LTO Q1 2018.xls

    XLS 1.23 MB

  • Document

    Market balance and prices copper LTO Q1 2018.xls

    XLS 473.00 KB

  • Document

    Global copper long-term outlook Q1 2018

    PDF 951.03 KB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 88.27 KB

  • Document

    Demand

    PDF 457.28 KB

  • Document

    Supply

    PDF 297.13 KB

  • Document

    Supply-demand balances

    PDF 205.18 KB

Table of contents

Tables and charts

This report includes 63 images and tables including:

Tables

  • Asia (excluding China & Japan) refined copper consumption – kt
  • Regional refined copper consumption – kt
  • Demand: Table 2
  • Demand: Table 3
  • Demand: Table 4
  • Chinese refined copper consumption - kt
  • Demand: Table 6
  • Demand: Table 7
  • Demand: Table 8
  • Demand: Table 9
  • Demand: Table 11
  • Demand: Table 12
  • Other refined copper consumption - kt
  • Disruptions Summary (copper in concentrate plus SxEw cathode)
  • Asia (excl. China) copper mine production capability - kt Cu
  • Africa copper mine production capability - kt Cu
  • Supply: Table 2
  • Supply: Table 3
  • Supply: Table 5
  • Supply: Table 6
  • Supply: Table 8
  • Supply: Table 9
  • Supply: Table 10
  • Supply: Table 11
  • Supply: Table 12
  • Asia (excl. China) copper smelter production capability - kt
  • China copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
  • Latin America and the Caribbean copper smelter production - kt Cu
  • Europe copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
  • North America copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
  • Middle East copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
  • Oceania copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
  • Russia and the Caspian copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
  • Regional copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
  • China copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
  • Asia (excl. China) copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
  • Europe copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
  • Middle East copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
  • Oceania copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
  • Russia and the Caspian copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
  • Supply: Table 13
  • Supply: Table 14
  • Supply: Table 27
  • Supply: Table 28
  • Supply: Table 29

Images

  • Manufacturing activity in all of the world's major economies is expanding
  • New orders for oil and gas machinery (3mma)
  • All the main sectors of the European economy are expanding
  • Origin and tonnage of Japanese wire and cable imports (kt gross weight)
  • Total copper consumption by industry sector, 2000 - 2035 kt Cu
  • Total copper semis production, 2000 - 2035 kt Cu
  • Demand: Image 2
  • Total copper consumption by property, 2000 - 2035 kt Cu
  • Copper consumption from new residential buildings
  • Indexed copper consumption growth - (2010=100)
  • Average annual global refined copper consumption - kt
  • Global copper scrap consumption, 2000-2030 kt Cu
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 1
  • Copper price performance and mining industry response
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 3
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 4
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 5
  • Global market demand for mine output

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