Commodity market report
Global copper long-term outlook Q1 2018
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Report summary
The copper metal market service long term outlook (LTO) is published quarterly and provides a detailed forecast of copper supply and demand fundamentals out to 2035. The price recovery that emerged from mid-2016 has started to encourage project development with significant brownfield and greenfield tonnage shifted from our probable and into our base case category. However, producers still remain cautious about allocating capital for growth and new supply still needs to be approved if it is to keep pace with demand. Indeed, beyond 2021, the pace of mine supply growth starts to slow more markedly. A strong recovery in prices should provide sufficient confidence to encourage producers to develop the larger (greenfield) projects that are needed to close the supply gap that will emerge. As this new supply comes on stream and surpluses develop, we expect LME quotes to trend lower to reach our forecast long-term incentive level price by 2028.
What's included
This report contains
Table of contents
- Executive summary
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Demand
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Overview
- Regional refined copper consumption, 2000 - 2035 kt Cu
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China
- China copper consumption breakdown
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North America
- North American refined copper consumption – kt
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Latin America
- Latin America refined copper consumption - kt
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Europe
- Europe refined copper consumption - kt
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Japan
- Japan refined copper consumption – kt
- Asia (excluding China & Japan)
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Russia & the Caspian
- Russia & the Caspian refined copper consumption - kt
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Rest of world
- Middle East refined copper consumption - kt
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Trends in consumption of secondary copper
- Scrap definition
- Scrapping rates
- Scrap usage
- Scrap consumption
- Scrap outlook
- Principal uses of copper
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Overview
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Supply
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Copper mine project changes since Q4 2017
- Base Case
- Probable
- Possible
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Regional mine production capability
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Summary
- Base case regional copper mine production capability - kt Cu
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Latin America and the Caribbean
- Latin America & Caribbean copper mine production capability - kt Cu
- Asia (excl. China)
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North America
- North America copper mine production capability - kt Cu
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Oceania
- Oceania copper mine production capability - kt Cu
- Africa
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Europe
- Europe copper mine production capability - kt Cu
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China
- China copper mine production capability - kt Cu
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Middle East
- Middle East copper mine production capability - kt Cu
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Russia and the Caspian
- Russia and the Caspian mine production capability – kt Cu
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Requirement for new mine capacity
- Incremental Cu market demand and base case, probable and possible Cu project production (kt Cu)
- Regional smelter production capability
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Regional refinery production capability
- Summary
- China
- Asia (excluding China)
- Europe
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Africa
- Africa copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
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Latin America & Caribbean
- Latin America and the Caribbean copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
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North America
- North America copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
- Middle East
- Oceania
- Russia and the Caspian
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Summary
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Copper mine project changes since Q4 2017
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Supply-demand balances
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Changes to the market outlook since Q4 2017
- Monthly total exchange stocks and prices
- Global metal balances & LME copper price (2018$)
- Nine key copper producers - share/commodity price (US $ eq)
- LME copper prices
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Changes to the market outlook since Q4 2017
Tables and charts
This report includes 63 images and tables including:
Images
- Manufacturing activity in all of the world's major economies is expanding
- New orders for oil and gas machinery (3mma)
- All the main sectors of the European economy are expanding
- Origin and tonnage of Japanese wire and cable imports (kt gross weight)
- Total copper consumption by industry sector, 2000 - 2035 kt Cu
- Total copper semis production, 2000 - 2035 kt Cu
- Demand: Image 2
- Total copper consumption by property, 2000 - 2035 kt Cu
- Copper consumption from new residential buildings
- Indexed copper consumption growth - (2010=100)
- Average annual global refined copper consumption - kt
- Global copper scrap consumption, 2000-2030 kt Cu
- Supply-demand balances: Image 1
- Copper price performance and mining industry response
- Supply-demand balances: Image 3
- Supply-demand balances: Image 4
- Supply-demand balances: Image 5
- Global market demand for mine output
Tables
- Asia (excluding China & Japan) refined copper consumption – kt
- Regional refined copper consumption – kt
- Demand: Table 2
- Demand: Table 3
- Demand: Table 4
- Chinese refined copper consumption - kt
- Demand: Table 6
- Demand: Table 7
- Demand: Table 8
- Demand: Table 9
- Demand: Table 11
- Demand: Table 12
- Other refined copper consumption - kt
- Disruptions Summary (copper in concentrate plus SxEw cathode)
- Asia (excl. China) copper mine production capability - kt Cu
- Africa copper mine production capability - kt Cu
- Supply: Table 2
- Supply: Table 3
- Supply: Table 5
- Supply: Table 6
- Supply: Table 8
- Supply: Table 9
- Supply: Table 10
- Supply: Table 11
- Supply: Table 12
- Asia (excl. China) copper smelter production capability - kt
- China copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
- Latin America and the Caribbean copper smelter production - kt Cu
- Europe copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
- North America copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
- Middle East copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
- Oceania copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
- Russia and the Caspian copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
- Regional copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
- China copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
- Asia (excl. China) copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
- Europe copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
- Middle East copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
- Oceania copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
- Russia and the Caspian copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
- Supply: Table 13
- Supply: Table 14
- Supply: Table 27
- Supply: Table 28
- Supply: Table 29
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