The copper metal market service long term outlook (LTO) is published quarterly and provides a detailed forecast of copper supply and demand fundamentals out to 2035. The price recovery that emerged from mid-2016 has started to encourage project development with significant brownfield and greenfield tonnage shifted from our probable and into our base case category. However, producers still remain cautious about allocating capital for growth and new supply still needs to be approved if it is to keep pace with demand. Indeed, beyond 2021, the pace of mine supply growth starts to slow more markedly. A strong recovery in prices should provide sufficient confidence to encourage producers to develop the larger (greenfield) projects that are needed to close the supply gap that will emerge. As this new supply comes on stream and surpluses develop, we expect LME quotes to trend lower to reach our forecast long-term incentive level price by 2028.