Global copper long-term outlook Q1 2019 Report

Commodity Market Report 27 March 2019

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What’s the key takeaway from this quarter’s report?

Copper's fundamentals are set to tighten sharply over the next couple of years. The anticipated rise in prices should encourage producers to commit to projects that will fill the expected supply gap.

Get our latest long-term outlook for all your questions on copper market fundamentals to 2040

Understand how end-use sectors and macroeconomic activity could influence our forecasts
Map out the impact of China's scrap policies
Identify how developments in mine supply will influence price.

This report includes 61 charts and tables, including this one, which tracks historical supply and demand changes and forecasts future balances out to 2030. Scroll down for the full table of contents.

Report summary

Global copper demand growth in 2018 turned out to be slightly weaker than suggested in our previous report. A contraction in semis production in a number of countries along with revisions to the split between refined and direct use of scrap, means our refined consumption estimates have been revisited. These changes alongside lower than anticipated mine disruptions kept the market in balance in 2018. Over the next couple of years, tightening metal market fundamentals against a backdrop of moderating demand growth and weak mine supply will drag inventories well below equilibrium levels of 65 days and encourage a rally in prices. The anticipated rise in prices should provide sufficient confidence to encourage new supply to the market. Once new supply starts to reach the market, surpluses should emerge with prices reversing their upward trend from the 2020 peak. Nevertheless, new projects are still required to offset falling output at existing mines over the medium to long term.

Overview
China
North America
Latin America
Europe
Japan
Asia (excluding China & Japan)
Russia & the Caspian
Rest of world
Trends in consumption of secondary copper
- Scrap definition
- Scrapping rates
- Scrap usage
- Scrap consumption
- Scrap outlook
Principal uses of copper
Copper mine project changes since Q4 2018
- Base Case
- Probable
- Possible
Copper smelter/refinery project changes since Q4 2018
Disruptions
Regional mine production capability
- Summary
- Latin America and the Caribbean
- Asia (excl. China)
- North America
- Oceania
- Africa
- Europe
- China
- Middle East
- Russia and the Caspian
- Requirement for new mine capacity
Regional smelter production capability
- Summary
- Africa
- Asia (excl. China)
- China
- Latin America & Caribbean
- Europe
- North America
- Middle East
- Oceania
- Russia and the Caspian
Regional refinery production capability
- Summary
- China
- Asia (excluding China)
- Europe
- Africa
- Latin America & Caribbean
- North America
- Middle East
- Oceania
- Russia and the Caspian
Changes to the market outlook since Q4 2018

Tables and charts

This report includes 61 images and tables including:

Manufacturing activity in all of the world's major economies starts to dip
Regional refined copper consumption, 2000 - 2040 kt Cu
Total copper consumption by property, 2000 - 2040 kt Cu

Regional refined copper consumption - kt
Contributions to Chinese total copper consumption growth from end use sectors
China copper consumption breakdown
China end-use copper demand (excl semis trade), 2010-2040 (kt)
2018 China end-use copper demand (excl semis trade)
Chinese refined copper consumption - kt
North American refined copper consumption - kt
Latin America refined copper consumption - kt
Sentiment suggests a slowdown in the main sectors of the European economy
Europe refined copper consumption - kt
Imports of wire and cable in Japan
Japan refined copper consumption - kt
Copper consumption per capita for selective Asian economies (2018 to 2040)
Asia (excluding China & Japan) refined copper consumption – kt
Russia & the Caspian refined copper consumption - kt
Middle East refined copper consumption - kt
Other refined copper consumption - kt
Indexed copper consumption growth - (2010=100)
Average annual global refined copper consumption - kt
Total copper consumption by industry sector, 2000 - 2040 kt Cu
Total copper semis production, 2000 - 2040 kt Cu
Disruptions Summary (copper in concentrate plus SxEw cathode)
Monthly total exchange stocks and prices
Global metal balances & LME copper price (2019$)
LME copper prices
Global copper scrap consumption, 2000-2030 kt Cu
Base case regional copper mine production capability - kt Cu
Latin America & Caribbean copper mine production capability - kt Cu
Asia (excl. China) copper mine production capability - kt Cu
North America copper mine production capability - kt Cu
Oceania copper mine production capability - kt Cu
Africa copper mine production capability - kt Cu
Europe copper mine production capability - kt Cu
China copper mine production capability - kt Cu
Middle East copper mine production capability - kt Cu
Russia and the Caspian mine production capability - kt Cu
Incremental Cu market demand and base case, probable and possible Cu project production (kt Cu)
Global market demand for mine output
Copper smelter production capability (kt Cu)
Africa copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
Asia (excl. China) copper smelter production capability - kt
China copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
Latin America and the Caribbean copper smelter production - kt Cu
Europe copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
North America copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
Middle East copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
Oceania copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
Russia and the Caspian copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
Regional copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
China copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
Asia (excl. China) copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
Europe copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
Africa copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
Latin America and the Caribbean copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
North America copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
Middle East copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
Oceania copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
Russia and the Caspian copper refinery production capability - kt Cu