Commodity Market Report

Global copper long-term outlook Q2 2016

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10 June 2016

Global copper long-term outlook Q2 2016

Report summary

The copper metal market service long term outlook (LTO) is published quarterly and provides a detailed forecast of copper supply and demand fundamentals out to 2035. Prices look set to continue their downtrend on an average annual basis over the next couple of years weighed down by persistent market surpluses and elevated global inventories, which will lead to further price related cut backs. Beyond 2018, we expect prices to trend higher, reacting positively to falling inventories and emerging deficits. Copper will rally to a peak in 2022 as stocks fall well below equilibrium levels of 65 days, reflecting the lagged effect of developing/commissioning additional mine production as demand continues to rise. As new supply continues to reach the market and surpluses emerge, we expect LME quotes to trend lower thereafter to reach our forecast long-term incentive level price by 2025.

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
    • Overview
      • Regional refined copper consumption, 2000 - 2035 kt Cu
    • China
      • Chinese refined copper consumption - kt
    • North America
      • North American refined copper consumption – kt
    • Latin America
      • Latin America refined copper consumption - kt
    • Europe
      • Europe refined copper consumption - kt
    • Japan
      • Japan refined copper consumption – kt
    • Asia (excluding China & Japan)
      • Asia (excluding China & Japan) refined copper consumption – kt
    • Russia & the Caspian
      • Russia & the Caspian refined copper consumption - kt
    • Rest of world
    • Trends in consumption of secondary copper
      • Scrap definition
      • Scrapping rates
      • Scrap usage
      • Scrap consumption
      • Scrap outlook
    • Principal uses of copper
    • Copper mine project changes since Q1 2016
      • Base Case
      • Probable
      • Possible
    • Copper smelter/refinery project changes since Q1 2016
    • Disruptions
    • Regional mine production capability
      • Summary
      • Latin America and the Caribbean
      • Asia (excl. China)
      • North America
      • Oceania
      • Africa
      • Europe
      • China
      • Middle East
      • Russia and the Caspian
      • Requirement for new mine capacity
    • Regional smelter production capability
      • Summary
      • Africa
      • Asia (excl. China)
      • China
      • Latin America & Caribbean
      • Europe
      • North America
      • Middle East
      • Oceania
      • Russia and the Caspian
    • Regional refinery production capability
      • Summary
      • China
      • Asia (excluding China)
      • Europe
      • Africa
        • Latin America & Caribbean
      • North America
      • Middle East
      • Oceania
      • Russia and the Caspian
    • Changes to the market outlook since Q1 2016
      • Monthly total exchange stocks and prices
      • Global metal balances & LME copper price (2016$)
      • LME copper prices

Tables and charts

This report includes 62 images and tables including:

  • China copper consumption breakdown
  • Demand: Image 3
  • Housing inventory will return to reasonable level after destocking
  • Demand: Table 3
  • North American construction output
  • European vehicle output
  • ASEAN and India dominate Asia ex-China total copper consumption growth
  • Middle East refined copper consumption - kt
  • Other refined copper consumption - kt
  • Indexed copper consumption growth - (2005=100)
  • Average annual global refined copper consumption - kt
  • Total copper consumption by industry sector, 2000 - 2035 kt Cu
  • Total copper semis production, 2000 - 2035 kt Cu
  • Disruptions Summary (copper in concentrate plus SxEw cathode)
  • Demand: Image 1
  • Total copper consumption by property, 2000 - 2035 kt Cu
  • Regional refined copper consumption – kt
  • Demand: Table 4
  • Demand: Table 5
  • Demand: Table 6
  • Demand: Table 7
  • Demand: Table 8
  • Demand: Table 9
  • Demand: Table 10
  • Global copper scrap consumption, 2000-2030 kt Cu
  • Base case regional copper mine production capability - kt Cu
  • Latin America & Caribbean copper mine production capability - kt Cu
  • Asia (excl. China) copper mine production capability - kt Cu
  • North America copper mine production capability - kt Cu
  • Oceania copper mine production capability - kt Cu
  • Africa copper mine production capability - kt Cu
  • Europe copper mine production capability - kt Cu
  • China copper mine production capability - kt Cu
  • Middle East copper mine production capability - kt Cu
  • Russia and the Caspian mine production capability – kt Cu
  • Incremental Cu market demand and highly probable, probable and possible Cu project production (kt Cu)
  • Global market demand for mine output
  • Copper smelter production capability (kt Cu)
  • Africa copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
  • Asia (excl. China) copper smelter production capability - kt
  • China copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
  • Latin America & Caribbean copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
  • Europe copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
  • North America copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
  • Middle East copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
  • Oceania copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
  • Russia and the Caspian copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
  • Regional copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
  • China copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
  • Asia (excl. China) copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
  • Europe copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
  • Africa copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
  • North America copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
  • Middle East copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
  • Oceania copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
  • Russia and the Caspian copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 1
  • Production cuts to-date (kt)
  • Production cuts by region (% share)
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 4
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 5
  • Latin America and the Caribbean copper refinery production capability - kt Cu

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Copper Tables Q2 2016.pdf

    PDF 1.80 MB

  • Document

    Slide pack copper LTO Q2 2016.pdf

    PDF 791.23 KB

  • Document

    Demand main changes copper LTO Q2 2016.xls

    XLS 148.00 KB

  • Document

    Demand analysis copper LTO Q2 2016.xls

    XLS 999.50 KB

  • Document

    Supply main changes copper LTO Q2 2016.xls

    XLS 99.50 KB

  • Document

    Production rankings copper LTO Q2 2016.xls

    XLS 67.00 KB

  • Document

    Equity Production copper LTO Q2 2016.xls

    XLS 8.51 MB

  • Document

    Mine analysis copper LTO Q2 2016.xls

    XLS 2.47 MB

  • Document

    Smelter analysis copper LTO Q2 2016.xls

    XLS 1.42 MB

  • Document

    Refinery analysis copper LTO Q2 2016.xls

    XLS 1.15 MB

  • Document

    Market balance and prices copper LTO Q2 2016.xls

    XLS 442.50 KB

  • Document

    Global copper long-term outlook Q2 2016

    PDF 731.79 KB

  • Document

    Global copper long-term outlook Q2 2016

    ZIP 6.80 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 80.22 KB

  • Document

    Demand

    PDF 347.99 KB

  • Document

    Supply

    PDF 271.22 KB

  • Document

    Supply-demand balances

    PDF 123.76 KB

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