Commodity Market Report

Global copper long-term outlook Q2 2017

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22 June 2017

Global copper long-term outlook Q2 2017

Report summary

The copper metal market service long term outlook (LTO) is published quarterly and provides a detailed forecast of copper supply and demand fundamentals out to 2035. Global mine supply has been at the forefront of market discussions in recent months with mine output (after disruptions) set to shrink for the first time since 2011 this year. In terms of the refined market, however, the impact will be limited by a forecast draw down in raw material inventories as well as higher scrap consumption. Beyond 2020, there will be a period of consistent supply deficits and with metal inventories being eroded well below equilibrium levels of 65 days, there will be a strong recovery in prices. This will provide sufficient confidence to encourage new supply to the market. Once new supply starts to reach the market, surpluses should emerge with prices reversing their upward trend and falling to our forecast long-term incentive price by 2026.

Why buy this report?

This report equips you with long-term, commodity-specific data so that you can:

  • Plan, forecast and benchmark opportunities in the global copper market
  • Assess the effects of key industry developments on market prices and balancing
  • Identify the best opportunities for investment
  • Understand the drivers for global mine supply and output, as well as the potential for a strong price recovery in the long term

Our analysis gives you a holistic view of ferrous and base metals markets so whether you're operating a mine or investing in a commodity, you can base your decision on objective, proprietary data.

This comprehensive copper market forecast offers detailed data and analysis looking out nearly 20 years. It includes:

  • Supply, demand, smelter, refinery, production and mine analysis by the numbers
  • A look into what recent disruptions in mine output mean for global copper mine trajectory now and in the future
  • An examination of how a balanced market will progress and return to positive mine supply
  • Analysis detailing potential supply deficits and price recovery post 2020

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