The copper metal market service long term outlook (LTO) is published quarterly and provides a detailed forecast of copper supply and demand fundamentals out to 2035. Global mine supply has been at the forefront of market discussions in recent months with mine output (after disruptions) set to shrink for the first time since 2011 this year. In terms of the refined market, however, the impact will be limited by a forecast draw down in raw material inventories as well as higher scrap consumption. Beyond 2020, there will be a period of consistent supply deficits and with metal inventories being eroded well below equilibrium levels of 65 days, there will be a strong recovery in prices. This will provide sufficient confidence to encourage new supply to the market. Once new supply starts to reach the market, surpluses should emerge with prices reversing their upward trend and falling to our forecast long-term incentive price by 2026.