Commodity Market Report

Global copper long-term outlook Q2 2018

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26 June 2018

Global copper long-term outlook Q2 2018

Report summary

As prices have recovered over the past 18 months, over 1.0Mt of projects have been committed and have been shifted into our base case category. Despite the inclusion of this additional capacity into our base case, new mine supply still needs to be sanctioned if it is to keep pace with demand. Beyond 2021, as inventories are drawn down to below the long term average of 65 days of consumption, we expect prices to trend higher, reaching a peak by 2025. This rise in prices should provide sufficient confidence to encourage producers to bring on the new capacity that is needed to close the supply gap that looks set to emerge. Scrap, SRB and exchange stock releases will provide a buffer to any initial shortfall in incremental mine supply that will be slower to emerge. Once new supply starts to reach the market, surpluses should emerge from 2026 with prices reversing their upward trend, falling to our forecast long-term incentive price by 2028.

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This report contains:

  • Document

    Global copper long-term outlook Q2 2018.pdf

    PDF 1.19 MB

  • Document

    Copper Tables Q2 2018.pdf

    PDF 1.79 MB

  • Document

    Copper LTO Document Tables Q2 2018.xls

    XLS 4.19 MB

  • Document

    Demand main changes copper LTO Q2 2018.xls

    XLS 151.00 KB

  • Document

    Demand analysis copper LTO Q2 2018.xls

    XLS 1.21 MB

  • Document

    Supply main changes copper LTO Q2 2018.xls

    XLS 112.00 KB

  • Document

    Production rankings copper LTO Q2 2018.xls

    XLS 81.00 KB

  • Document

    Equity Production copper LTO Q2 2018.xls

    XLS 11.24 MB

  • Document

    Mine analysis copper LTO Q2 2018.xls

    XLS 2.51 MB

  • Document

    Smelter analysis copper LTO Q2 2018.xls

    XLS 1.50 MB

  • Document

    Refinery analysis copper LTO Q2 2018.xls

    XLS 1.23 MB

  • Document

    Market balance and prices copper LTO Q2 2018.xls

    XLS 471.00 KB

  • Document

    Global copper long-term outlook Q2 2018

    ZIP 6.42 MB