As prices have recovered over the past 18 months, over 1.0Mt of projects have been committed and have been shifted into our base case category. Despite the inclusion of this additional capacity into our base case, new mine supply still needs to be sanctioned if it is to keep pace with demand. Beyond 2021, as inventories are drawn down to below the long term average of 65 days of consumption, we expect prices to trend higher, reaching a peak by 2025. This rise in prices should provide sufficient confidence to encourage producers to bring on the new capacity that is needed to close the supply gap that looks set to emerge. Scrap, SRB and exchange stock releases will provide a buffer to any initial shortfall in incremental mine supply that will be slower to emerge. Once new supply starts to reach the market, surpluses should emerge from 2026 with prices reversing their upward trend, falling to our forecast long-term incentive price by 2028.