Commodity Market Report

Global copper long-term outlook Q2 2019

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Quick read: 4 things you need to know about the outlook for the global copper market

  1. The market continues to be at the mercy of wider global developments, with bearish sentiment brought about by a deterioration in China-US relations over the past three months.
  2. Despite a tight market for refined metal, prices continue to be swayed by geopolitical events. 
  3. We still expect a stronger performance over H2 2019, which should support an annual average copper price of $6696/t ($3.04/lb) for 2019.
  4. 2021 will be a turning point, as supply from the 2.7 Mt of projects committed since 2017 and additional production from existing mines begins to hit the market.

Purchase the full 25-page report for in-depth analysis of each of these factors. You'll get access to our charts and datasets, including this one, which tracks copper supply and demand fundamentals out to 2040. Scroll down for a full table of contents. 

24 June 2019

Global copper long-term outlook Q2 2019

Report summary

The market continues to be at the mercy of wider global developments, with bearish sentiment brought about by a deterioration in China-US relations over the past three months. These factors have weighed heavily on prices and have continued to overshadow any positive news flow, despite a tight fundamental picture for copper. Over the medium-term, as supply from the projects committed since 2017 begins to hit the market and consumption softens in parallel with a cooling global macroeconomic outlook, we expect to see a return to surplus. Nevertheless, the market still requires additional capacity to close the supply gap that is set to emerge over the long-term.

Table of contents

  • Market outlook
  • Demand update
  • Scrap update
  • Supply update

Tables and charts

No table or charts specified

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global_copper_long_term_outlook_Q2_2019.pdf

    PDF 1.86 MB

  • Document

    Copper_Tables_Q2_2019.pdf

    PDF 1.80 MB

  • Document

    Copper_LTO_Document_Tables_Q2_2019.xls

    XLS 4.24 MB

  • Document

    Demand main changes copper LTO Q2 2019.xls

    XLS 144.50 KB

  • Document

    Demand analysis copper LTO Q2 2019.xls

    XLS 1.23 MB

  • Document

    Supply main changes copper LTO Q2 2019.xls

    XLS 122.50 KB

  • Document

    Production rankings copper LTO Q2 2019.xls

    XLS 72.50 KB

  • Document

    Equity Production copper LTO Q2 2019.xls

    XLS 11.48 MB

  • Document

    Mine analysis copper LTO Q2 2019.xls

    XLS 2.53 MB

  • Document

    Smelter analysis copper LTO Q2 2019.xls

    XLS 1.50 MB

  • Document

    Refinery analysis copper LTO Q2 2019.xls

    XLS 1.23 MB

  • Document

    Market balance and prices copper LTO Q2 2019.xls

    XLS 471.50 KB

  • Document

    Global copper long-term outlook Q2 2019

    ZIP 8.19 MB

  • Document

    Global copper long-term outlook Q2 2019

    ZIP 8.85 MB

Tables and Charts

  • Global stocks of refined copper and annual average copper price
  • Total exchange stocks and prices
  • Global supply-demand balance
  • Change in global refined copper consumption
  • Change in China copper consumption
  • Manufacturing PMIs show demand weakening
  • Demand set to recover in 2022
  • Global refined copper consumption growth at a glance
  • Chinese total copper consumption growth (2018 -2040)
  • Regional breakdown of global refined copper consumption growth (2020-2040)
  • Copper consumption grows faster than EV sales
  • China set to be main market for BEV sales
  • Copper scrap supply in China, copper contained
  • Global copper scrap use as % of total demand
  • Revisions to global mine production forecast, Q2 2019 vs Q1 2019 LTO
  • Global copper production and primary demand
  • Mining projects moved to the base case since the start of 2017
  • Smelter production capacity

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