Commodity market report

Global copper long-term outlook Q3 2015

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Report summary

The copper metal market service long term outlook (LTO) is published quarterly and provides a detailed forecast of copper supply and demand fundamentals out to 2035. This latest update shows that slower demand growth has offset downgrades to our production forecasts leading to an upward revision of our projected metal surplus for 2015. We expect an improvement in global economic performance to feed through to provide some much needed support to refined copper consumption in 2016 and 2017. However additional new mine supply will lead to inventories continuing to accumulate to a peak by the end of 2017 with prices dipping to an annual average low in that year. Further forward slowing supply growth and a subsequent drawdown in accumulated inventories are projected to add upward momentum to prices which are projected to recover to our long term incentive level by 2022.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Copper Tables Q3 2015.pdf

    PDF 1.77 MB

  • Document

    Slide pack copper LTO Q3 2015.pdf

    PDF 787.37 KB

  • Document

    Demand main changes copper LTO Q3 2015.xls

    XLS 147.50 KB

  • Document

    Demand analysis copper LTO Q3 2015.xls

    XLS 981.50 KB

  • Document

    Supply main changes copper LTO Q3 2015.xls

    XLS 87.00 KB

  • Document

    Production rankings copper LTO Q3 2015.xls

    XLS 65.50 KB

  • Document

    Equity Production copper LTO Q3 2015.xls

    XLS 8.96 MB

  • Document

    Mine analysis copper LTO Q3 2015.xls

    XLS 2.46 MB

  • Document

    Smelter analysis copper LTO Q3 2015.xls

    XLS 1.47 MB

  • Document

    Refinery analysis copper LTO Q3 2015.xls

    XLS 1.21 MB

  • Document

    Market balance and prices copper LTO Q3 2015.xls

    XLS 429.00 KB

  • Document

    Global copper long-term outlook Q3 2015

    PDF 644.74 KB

  • Document

    Global copper long-term outlook Q3 2015

    ZIP 6.63 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 81.18 KB

  • Document

    Demand

    PDF 236.59 KB

  • Document

    Supply

    PDF 288.33 KB

  • Document

    Supply-demand balances

    PDF 130.72 KB

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Demand
  • Supply
  • Supply-demand balances

Tables and charts

This report includes 54 images and tables including:

Images

  • Regional refined copper consumption, 2000 - 2035 kt Cu
  • Total copper consumption by property, 2000 - 2035 kt Cu
  • Indexed copper consumption growth - (2005=100)
  • Average annual global refined copper consumption - kt
  • Total copper consumption by industry sector, 2000 - 2035 kt Cu
  • Total copper semis production, 2000 - 2035 kt Cu
  • Monthly total exchange stocks and prices
  • Global metal balances & LME copper price (2015$)
  • Indexed currency movements weighted on copper mine production
  • LME copper prices
  • Global copper scrap consumption, 2000-2035 kt Cu
  • Global market demand for mine output

Tables

  • Regional refined copper consumption – kt
  • Chinese refined copper consumption - kt
  • North American refined copper consumption – kt
  • Latin America refined copper consumption - kt
  • Europe refined copper consumption - kt
  • Japan refined copper consumption – kt
  • Asia (excluding China & Japan) refined copper consumption – kt
  • Middle East refined copper consumption - kt
  • Other refined copper consumption - kt
  • Disruptions Summary (copper in concentrate plus SxEw cathode)
  • Russia & the Caspian refined copper consumption - kt
  • Base case regional copper mine production capability - kt Cu
  • Latin America & Caribbean copper mine production capability - kt Cu
  • Asia (excl. China) copper mine production capability - kt Cu
  • North America copper mine production capability - kt Cu
  • Oceania copper mine production capability - kt Cu
  • Africa copper mine production capability - kt Cu
  • Europe copper mine production capability - kt Cu
  • China copper mine production capability - kt Cu
  • Middle East copper mine production capability - kt Cu
  • Russia and the Caspian mine production capability – kt Cu
  • Incremental Cu market demand and highly probable, probable and possible Cu project production (kt Cu)
  • Copper smelter production capability (kt Cu)
  • Africa copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
  • Asia (excl. China) copper smelter production capability - kt
  • China copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
  • Latin America & Caribbean copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
  • Europe copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
  • North America copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
  • Middle East copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
  • Oceania copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
  • Russia and the Caspian copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
  • Regional copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
  • China copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
  • Asia (excl. China) copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
  • Europe copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
  • North America copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
  • Middle East copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
  • Oceania copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
  • Russia and the Caspian copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
  • Africa copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
  • Latin America and the Caribbean copper refinery production capability - kt Cu

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