Commodity market report

Global copper long-term outlook Q3 2016

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Report summary

The copper metal market service long term outlook (LTO) is published quarterly and provides a detailed forecast of copper supply and demand fundamentals out to 2035. Post 2008 in pursuit of escalating demand growth in China and spurred on by higher prices producers raced to increase capacity. Long project lead times mean that supply is still coming to the market while demand growth slows and stocks build. In this lower price environment mining companies are focusing on cutting costs while squeezed margins delay new project development. With demand continuing to grow this will lead to the emergence of substantial deficits. In anticipation of emerging deficits from 2021 prices will trend higher. As stocks fall well below equilibrium levels of 65 days by 2023 copper prices will rally to a peak. This will encourage new supply to the market and as surpluses emerge we expect LME quotes to subsequently trend lower to reach our forecast long term incentive level price by 2025.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Copper Tables Q3 2016.pdf

    PDF 1.81 MB

  • Document

    Slide pack copper LTO Q3 2016.pdf

    PDF 829.05 KB

  • Document

    Demand main changes copper LTO Q3 2016.xls

    XLS 145.00 KB

  • Document

    Demand analysis copper LTO Q3 2016.xls

    XLS 1023.50 KB

  • Document

    Supply main changes copper LTO Q3 2016.xls

    XLS 97.00 KB

  • Document

    Production rankings copper LTO Q3 2016.xls

    XLS 64.00 KB

  • Document

    Equity Production copper LTO Q3 2016.xls

    XLS 9.99 MB

  • Document

    Mine analysis copper LTO Q3 2016.xls

    XLS 2.56 MB

  • Document

    Smelter analysis copper LTO Q3 2016.xls

    XLS 1.42 MB

  • Document

    Refinery analysis copper LTO Q3 2016.xls

    XLS 1.17 MB

  • Document

    Market balance and prices copper LTO Q3 2016.xls

    XLS 454.50 KB

  • Document

    Global copper long-term outlook Q3 2016

    PDF 785.43 KB

  • Document

    Global copper long-term outlook Q3 2016

    ZIP 7.12 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 83.26 KB

  • Document

    Demand

    PDF 361.42 KB

  • Document

    Supply

    PDF 299.48 KB

  • Document

    Supply-demand balances

    PDF 130.31 KB

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Demand
  • Supply
  • Supply-demand balances

Tables and charts

This report includes 61 images and tables including:

Images

  • China housing completions before and after SOE support
  • China passenger car output by major vehicle type
  • North American vehicle production
  • European Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF)
  • Indexed copper consumption growth - (2005=100)
  • Average annual global refined copper consumption - kt
  • Total copper consumption by industry sector, 2000 - 2035 kt Cu
  • Total copper semis production, 2000 - 2035 kt Cu
  • Monthly total exchange stocks and prices
  • Global metal balances & LME copper price (2016$)
  • Squeezed margins likely to delay new investment
  • LME copper prices
  • Demand: Image 1
  • Total copper consumption by property, 2000 - 2035 kt Cu
  • Global copper scrap consumption, 2000-2030 kt Cu
  • Global market demand for mine output

Tables

  • China copper consumption breakdown
  • Demand: Table 3
  • Demand: Table 4
  • Middle East refined copper consumption - kt
  • Other refined copper consumption - kt
  • Disruptions Summary (copper in concentrate plus SxEw cathode)
  • Regional refined copper consumption – kt
  • Demand: Table 5
  • Demand: Table 6
  • Demand: Table 7
  • Demand: Table 8
  • Demand: Table 9
  • Demand: Table 10
  • Demand: Table 11
  • Base case regional copper mine production capability - kt Cu
  • Latin America & Caribbean copper mine production capability - kt Cu
  • Asia (excl. China) copper mine production capability - kt Cu
  • North America copper mine production capability - kt Cu
  • Oceania copper mine production capability - kt Cu
  • Africa copper mine production capability - kt Cu
  • Europe copper mine production capability - kt Cu
  • China copper mine production capability - kt Cu
  • Middle East copper mine production capability - kt Cu
  • Russia and the Caspian mine production capability – kt Cu
  • Incremental Cu market demand and highly probable, probable and possible Cu project production (kt Cu)
  • Copper smelter production capability (kt Cu)
  • Africa copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
  • Asia (excl. China) copper smelter production capability - kt
  • China copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
  • Latin America & Caribbean copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
  • Europe copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
  • North America copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
  • Middle East copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
  • Oceania copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
  • Russia and the Caspian copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
  • Regional copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
  • China copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
  • Asia (excl. China) copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
  • Europe copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
  • Africa copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
  • North America copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
  • Middle East copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
  • Oceania copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
  • Russia and the Caspian copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
  • Latin America and the Caribbean copper refinery production capability - kt Cu

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