Commodity market report
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56 Pages

Global copper long-term outlook Q3 2016


Global copper long-term outlook Q3 2016

Report summary

The copper metal market service long term outlook (LTO) is published quarterly and provides a detailed forecast of copper supply and demand fundamentals out to 2035. Post 2008, in pursuit of escalating demand growth in China and spurred on by higher prices, producers raced to increase capacity. Long project lead times mean that supply is still coming to the market while demand growth slows and stocks build. In this lower price environment, mining companies are focusing on cutting costs, while squeezed margins delay new project development. With demand continuing to grow, this will lead to the emergence of substantial deficits. In anticipation of emerging deficits from 2021, prices will trend higher. As stocks fall well below equilibrium levels of 65 days by 2023, copper prices will rally to a peak. This will encourage new supply to the market and as surpluses emerge, we expect LME quotes to subsequently trend lower to reach our forecast long-term incentive level price by 2025.

What's included?

This report includes 12 file(s)

  • Global copper long-term outlook Q3 2016 PDF - 785.43 KB 56 Pages, 45 Tables, 16 Figures
  • Copper Tables Q3 2016.pdf PDF - 1.81 MB
  • Slide pack copper LTO Q3 2016.pdf PDF - 829.05 KB
  • Demand main changes copper LTO Q3 2016.xls XLS - 145.00 KB
  • Demand analysis copper LTO Q3 2016.xls XLS - 1023.50 KB
  • Supply main changes copper LTO Q3 2016.xls XLS - 97.00 KB
  • Production rankings copper LTO Q3 2016.xls XLS - 64.00 KB
  • Equity Production copper LTO Q3 2016.xls XLS - 9.99 MB
  • Mine analysis copper LTO Q3 2016.xls XLS - 2.56 MB
  • Smelter analysis copper LTO Q3 2016.xls XLS - 1.42 MB
  • Refinery analysis copper LTO Q3 2016.xls XLS - 1.17 MB
  • Market balance and prices copper LTO Q3 2016.xls XLS - 454.50 KB

Description

As global demand weakens and commodity prices fall, we're seeing a challenging environment in the metals and mining industry. Mining companies are increasingly coming under pressure to reduce operating costs, causing many to shift their strategic planning, delay new investments and look to long-term future growth.

This Copper Long Term Outlook report provides a detailed breakdown of global supply and demand balances in this market, as well as price forecasts.

Mining companies, investment banks and investors can use this report to understand the future direction of the ferrous and base metals market. It will also help you assess the impact of key industry issues and events on market balances and pricing.

From acquisitions to investments, Wood Mackenzie helps you plan, forecast and benchmark in the metals markets. Our proprietary database and analyst expertise combines robust production, consumption and pricing data with detailed analysis to identify market opportunities.

We give you a holistic view of the ferrous and base metals markets so you have the confidence to make strategic decisions.

  • Executive summary
  • Demand
    • Overview
      • Regional refined copper consumption, 2000 - 2035 kt Cu
    • China
      • Chinese refined copper consumption - kt
    • North America
      • North American refined copper consumption – kt
    • Latin America
      • Latin America refined copper consumption - kt
    • Europe
      • Europe refined copper consumption - kt
    • Japan
      • Japan refined copper consumption – kt
    • Asia (excluding China & Japan)
      • Asia (excluding China & Japan) refined copper consumption – kt
    • Russia & the Caspian
      • Russia & the Caspian refined copper consumption - kt
    • Rest of world
    • Trends in consumption of secondary copper
      • Scrap definition
      • Scrapping rates
      • Scrap usage
      • Scrap consumption
      • Scrap outlook
    • Principal uses of copper
  • Supply
    • Copper mine project changes since Q2 2016
      • Base Case
      • Highly Probable
      • Probable
      • Possible
    • Copper smelter/refinery project changes since Q2 2016
    • Disruptions
    • Regional mine production capability
      • Summary
      • Latin America and the Caribbean
      • Asia (excl. China)
      • North America
      • Oceania
      • Africa
      • Europe
      • China
      • Middle East
      • Russia and the Caspian
      • Requirement for new mine capacity
    • Regional smelter production capability
      • Summary
      • Africa
      • Asia (excl. China)
      • China
      • Latin America & Caribbean
      • Europe
      • North America
      • Middle East
      • Oceania
      • Russia and the Caspian
    • Regional refinery production capability
      • Summary
      • China
      • Asia (excluding China)
      • Europe
      • Africa
        • Latin America & Caribbean
      • North America
      • Middle East
      • Oceania
      • Russia and the Caspian
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Changes to the market outlook since Q2 2016

In this report there are 61 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
  • Demand
    • Demand: Image 1
    • Total copper consumption by property, 2000 - 2035 kt Cu
    • Regional refined copper consumption – kt
    • China copper consumption breakdown
    • Demand: Table 3
    • China housing completions before and after SOE support
    • China passenger car output by major vehicle type
    • Demand: Table 4
    • Demand: Table 5
    • North American vehicle production
    • Demand: Table 6
    • Demand: Table 7
    • European Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF)
    • Demand: Table 8
    • Demand: Table 9
    • Demand: Table 10
    • Demand: Table 11
    • Middle East refined copper consumption - kt
    • Other refined copper consumption - kt
    • Indexed copper consumption growth - (2005=100)
    • Average annual global refined copper consumption - kt
    • Global copper scrap consumption, 2000-2030 kt Cu
    • Total copper consumption by industry sector, 2000 - 2035 kt Cu
    • Total copper semis production, 2000 - 2035 kt Cu
  • Supply
    • Disruptions Summary (copper in concentrate plus SxEw cathode)
    • Base case regional copper mine production capability - kt Cu
    • Latin America & Caribbean copper mine production capability - kt Cu
    • Asia (excl. China) copper mine production capability - kt Cu
    • North America copper mine production capability - kt Cu
    • Oceania copper mine production capability - kt Cu
    • Africa copper mine production capability - kt Cu
    • Europe copper mine production capability - kt Cu
    • China copper mine production capability - kt Cu
    • Middle East copper mine production capability - kt Cu
    • Russia and the Caspian mine production capability – kt Cu
    • Incremental Cu market demand and highly probable, probable and possible Cu project production (kt Cu)
    • Global market demand for mine output
    • Copper smelter production capability (kt Cu)
    • Africa copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
    • Asia (excl. China) copper smelter production capability - kt
    • China copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
    • Latin America & Caribbean copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
    • Europe copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
    • North America copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
    • Middle East copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
    • Oceania copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
    • Russia and the Caspian copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
    • Regional copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
    • China copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
    • Asia (excl. China) copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
    • Europe copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
    • Africa copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
    • Latin America and the Caribbean copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
    • North America copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
    • Middle East copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
    • Oceania copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
    • Russia and the Caspian copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Monthly total exchange stocks and prices
    • Global metal balances & LME copper price (2016$)
    • Squeezed margins likely to delay new investment
    • LME copper prices
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