The copper metal market service long term outlook (LTO) is published quarterly and provides a detailed forecast of copper supply and demand fundamentals out to 2035. Post 2008, in pursuit of escalating demand growth in China and spurred on by higher prices, producers raced to increase capacity. Long project lead times mean that supply is still coming to the market while demand growth slows and stocks build. In this lower price environment, mining companies are focusing on cutting costs, while squeezed margins delay new project development. With demand continuing to grow, this will lead to the emergence of substantial deficits. In anticipation of emerging deficits from 2021, prices will trend higher. As stocks fall well below equilibrium levels of 65 days by 2023, copper prices will rally to a peak. This will encourage new supply to the market and as surpluses emerge, we expect LME quotes to subsequently trend lower to reach our forecast long-term incentive level price by 2025.
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As global demand weakens and commodity prices fall, we're seeing a challenging environment in the metals and mining industry. Mining companies are increasingly coming under pressure to reduce operating costs, causing many to shift their strategic planning, delay new investments and look to long-term future growth.
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Commodity market report | Sep 2016
Global copper long-term outlook Q3 2016
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