Commodity Market Report

Global copper long-term outlook Q3 2017

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25 September 2017

Global copper long-term outlook Q3 2017

Report summary

The copper metal market service long term outlook (LTO) is published quarterly and provides a detailed forecast of copper supply and demand fundamentals out to 2035. The copper market turned decidedly positive in Q3 with prices surging on the back of solid demand, a weaker dollar and concerns about supply disruptions. The recovery in prices also encouraged the approval of several projects. The advancement of these projects into our base case does not change our view of the market. We continue to forecast stable cathode inventories over the next few years, reflecting a return to positive growth in mine supply from 2018 to 2020 set against moderate demand growth. It will be only beyond 2021, as liquid stocks are eroded sharply lower, that we would expect a sizeable reaction in prices. This will encourage new supply to the market and as surpluses emerge, we expect LME quotes to subsequently trend lower to reach our forecast long-term incentive level price by 2027.

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
    • Overview
    • China
    • North America
    • Latin America
    • Europe
      • Europe refined copper consumption - kt
    • Japan
    • Asia (excluding China & Japan)
    • Russia & the Caspian
    • Rest of world
    • Trends in consumption of secondary copper
      • Scrap definition
      • Scrapping rates
      • Scrap usage
      • Scrap consumption
      • Scrap outlook
    • Principal uses of copper
    • Copper mine project changes since Q2 2017
      • Base Case
      • Probable
      • Possible
    • Copper smelter/refinery project changes since Q2 2017
    • Disruptions
    • Regional mine production capability
      • Summary
      • Latin America and the Caribbean
      • Asia (excl. China)
      • North America
      • Oceania
      • Africa
      • Europe
      • China
      • Middle East
      • Russia and the Caspian
      • Requirement for new mine capacity
    • Regional smelter production capability
      • Summary
      • Africa
      • Asia (excl. China)
      • China
      • Latin America & Caribbean
      • Europe
      • North America
      • Middle East
      • Oceania
      • Russia and the Caspian
    • Regional refinery production capability
      • Summary
      • China
      • Asia (excluding China)
      • Europe
      • Africa
      • Latin America & Caribbean
      • North America
      • Middle East
      • Oceania
      • Russia and the Caspian
    • Changes to the market outlook since Q2 2017
      • Monthly total exchange stocks and prices
      • Global metal balances & LME copper price (2017$)
      • LME copper prices

Tables and charts

This report includes 59 images and tables including:

  • Regional refined copper consumption, 2000 - 2035 kt Cu
  • Total copper consumption by property, 2000 - 2035 kt Cu
  • Regional refined copper consumption – kt
  • China copper consumption breakdown
  • Demand: Table 3
  • Base case copper consumption from the Chinese auto industry
  • Demand: Table 4
  • Chinese refined copper consumption - kt
  • North American refined copper consumption – kt
  • Latin America refined copper consumption - kt
  • Japanese population set to decline longer term
  • Japan refined copper consumption – kt
  • Share of GDP accounted for by various sectors
  • Asia (excluding China & Japan) refined copper consumption – kt
  • Russia & the Caspian refined copper consumption - kt
  • Middle East refined copper consumption - kt
  • Other refined copper consumption - kt
  • Indexed copper consumption growth - (2010=100)
  • Average annual global refined copper consumption - kt
  • Total copper consumption by industry sector, 2000 - 2035 kt Cu
  • Total copper semis production, 2000 - 2035 kt Cu
  • Disruptions Summary (copper in concentrate plus SxEw cathode)
  • Demand: Table 8
  • Global copper scrap consumption, 2000-2030 kt Cu
  • Base case regional copper mine production capability - kt Cu
  • Latin America & Caribbean copper mine production capability - kt Cu
  • Asia (excl. China) copper mine production capability - kt Cu
  • North America copper mine production capability - kt Cu
  • Oceania copper mine production capability - kt Cu
  • Africa copper mine production capability - kt Cu
  • Europe copper mine production capability - kt Cu
  • China copper mine production capability - kt Cu
  • Middle East copper mine production capability - kt Cu
  • Russia and the Caspian mine production capability – kt Cu
  • Incremental Cu market demand and base case, probable and possible Cu project production (kt Cu)
  • Global market demand for mine output
  • Copper smelter production capability (kt Cu)
  • Africa copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
  • Asia (excl. China) copper smelter production capability - kt
  • China copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
  • Latin America and the Caribbean copper smelter production - kt Cu
  • Europe copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
  • North America copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
  • Middle East copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
  • Oceania copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
  • Russia and the Caspian copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
  • Regional copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
  • China copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
  • Asia (excl. China) copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
  • Europe copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
  • Africa copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
  • Latin America and the Caribbean copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
  • North America copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
  • Middle East copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
  • Oceania copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
  • Russia and the Caspian copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 1
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 2
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 3

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Copper Tables Q3 2017.pdf

    PDF 2.60 MB

  • Document

    Slide pack copper LTO Q3 2017.pdf

    PDF 822.12 KB

  • Document

    Demand main changes copper LTO Q3 2017.xls

    XLS 153.00 KB

  • Document

    Demand analysis copper LTO Q3 2017.xls

    XLS 931.50 KB

  • Document

    Supply main changes copper LTO Q3 2017.xls

    XLS 100.00 KB

  • Document

    Production rankings copper LTO Q3 2017.xls

    XLS 75.50 KB

  • Document

    Equity Production copper LTO Q3 2017.xls

    XLS 9.76 MB

  • Document

    Mine analysis copper LTO Q3 2017.xls

    XLS 2.64 MB

  • Document

    Smelter analysis copper LTO Q3 2017.xls

    XLS 1.55 MB

  • Document

    Refinery analysis copper LTO Q3 2017.xls

    XLS 1.28 MB

  • Document

    Market balance and prices copper LTO Q3 2017.xls

    XLS 481.00 KB

  • Document

    Global copper long-term outlook Q3 2017

    PDF 713.47 KB

  • Document

    Global copper long-term outlook Q3 2017

    ZIP 7.75 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 84.48 KB

  • Document

    Demand

    PDF 321.58 KB

  • Document

    Supply

    PDF 276.24 KB

  • Document

    Supply-demand balances

    PDF 124.91 KB

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