Commodity market report
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48 Pages

Global copper long-term outlook Q4 2013


Global copper long-term outlook Q4 2013

Report summary

The overall outlook for copper remains unchanged since the Q3 LTO.  As highlighted in the previous LTO, tightness in the availability of scrap had already begun to affect production at smelters and refineries.  Over the past several months the lack of direct use scrap has resulted in higher cathode usage.  The net effect is that our 2013 market balance now indicates a surplus of 181kt, with stocks rising to 71 days of consumption.

What's included?

This report includes 10 file(s)

  • Global copper long-term outlook Q4 2013 PDF - 659.22 KB 48 Pages, 42 Tables, 10 Figures
  • Demand main changes copper LTO Q4 2013.xls XLS - 107.50 KB
  • Market balance and prices copper LTO Q4 2013.xls XLS - 403.50 KB
  • Mine analysis copper LTO Q4 2013.xls XLS - 1.82 MB
  • Production rankings copper LTO Q4 2013.xls XLS - 36.00 KB
  • Refinery analysis copper LTO Q4 2013.xls XLS - 945.00 KB
  • Smelter analysis copper LTO Q4 2013.xls XLS - 1.19 MB
  • Supply main changes copper LTO Q4 2013.xls XLS - 66.00 KB
  • Economics Q4 2013.pdf PDF - 320.00 KB
  • Slide pack copper LTO Q4 2013.pdf PDF - 463.32 KB

Description

As global demand weakens and commodity prices fall, we're seeing a challenging environment in the metals and mining industry. Mining companies are increasingly coming under pressure to reduce operating costs, causing many to shift their strategic planning, delay new investments and look to long-term future growth.

This Copper Long Term Outlook report provides a detailed breakdown of global supply and demand balances in this market, as well as price forecasts.

Mining companies, investment banks and investors can use this report to understand the future direction of the ferrous and base metals market. It will also help you assess the impact of key industry issues and events on market balances and pricing.

From acquisitions to investments, Wood Mackenzie helps you plan, forecast and benchmark in the metals markets. Our proprietary database and analyst expertise combines robust production, consumption and pricing data with detailed analysis to identify market opportunities.

We give you a holistic view of the ferrous and base metals markets so you have the confidence to make strategic decisions.

  • Executive summary
  • Demand
    • China
    • North America
    • North American refined copper consumption – kt
    • Latin America
    • Latin America refined copper consumption - kt
    • Europe
    • Japan
    • Asia (excluding China & Japan)
    • Middle East
    • Middle East refined copper consumption - kt
    • Russia & the Caspian
    • Africa and Oceania
    • Other refined copper consumption - kt
    • Average annual global refined copper consumption - kt
    • Scrap definition
    • Scrapping rates
    • Scrap usage
    • Scrap consumption
    • Scrap outlook
  • Supply
    • Copper mine project changes since Q3 2013
      • Base Case
      • Highly Probable
      • Probable
      • Possible
    • Copper smelter/refinery project changes since Q3 2013
    • Disruptions
    • Regional mine production capability
      • Summary
      • Disruptions to mine production recorded during 2012 amounted to 980kt equivalent to 5.4% of estimated production capability at the start of that year. Despite this shortfall, global mine production reached 16.7Mt, 3.6% higher than the total achieved during 2011. This figure still represents a significant change from the low growth achieved over the previous ten years during which the incremental uplift averaged just 1.7% p.a.
      • The increase of 3.6% achieved during 2012 marks the start of a four-year expansion period which will see global production capability (before disruptions) exceed 20Mt for the first time. Additions to mine capacity during the period 2012 through to 2016 represent a compound annual average growth rate (CAGR) of 5.9%.
      • Base case regional copper mine production capability - kt Cu
      • Latin America and the Caribbean
      • Oceania
      • Africa
      • Europe
      • China
      • Requirement for new mine capacity
    • Regional smelter production capability
      • Summary
      • Copper smelter production capability (kt Cu)
      • Africa
      • Asia (excl. China)
      • China
      • Latin America & Caribbean
      • Europe
      • Oceania
      • Russia and the Caspian
    • Regional refinery production capability
      • Summary
      • China
      • Asia
      • Europe
      • Africa
      • Latin America & Caribbean
      • North America
      • Middle East copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
      • Oceania
      • Russia and the Caspian
  • Supply-demand balances

In this report there are 52 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
  • Demand
    • Demand: Table 1
    • China semis production - kt
    • Demand: Table 2
    • Demand: Table 3
    • Demand: Table 4
    • Demand: Image 2
    • Europe refined copper consumption - kt
    • Japan refined copper consumption – kt
    • Asia (excluding China & Japan) refined copper consumption – kt
    • Demand: Table 8
    • Russia & the Caspian refined copper consumption - kt
    • Oceania semis production - kt
    • Demand: Table 10
    • Indexed copper consumption growth - (2005=100)
    • Demand: Image 5
    • Global copper scrap consumption 2000-2030 -kt Cu
  • Supply
    • Disruptions Summary (copper in concentrate plus SxEw cathode)
    • Supply: Table 2
    • Latin America & Caribbean copper mine production capability - kt Cu
    • Asia (excl. China) copper mine production capability - kt Cu
    • North America copper mine production capability - kt Cu
    • Oceania copper mine production capability - kt Cu
    • Africa copper mine production capability - kt Cu
    • Europe copper mine production capability - kt Cu
    • China copper mine production capability - kt Cu
    • Middle East copper mine production capability - kt Cu
    • Russia and the Caspian mine production capability – kt Cu
    • Incremental Cu market demand and highly probable, probable and possible Cu project production (kt Cu)
    • Global market demand for mine output
    • Supply: Table 13
    • Africa copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
    • Asia (excl. China) copper smelter production capability - kt
    • China copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
    • Latin America & Caribbean copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
    • Europe copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
    • North America copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
    • Middle East copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
    • Oceania copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
    • Russia and the Caspian copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
    • Regional copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
    • China copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
    • Asia (excl. China) copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
    • Europe copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
    • Africa copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
    • Latin America and the Caribbean copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
    • North America copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
    • Supply: Table 30
    • Oceania copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
    • Russia and the Caspian copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Monthly total exchange stocks and prices
    • Global metal balances & LME copper price (2013$)
    • LME copper prices
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