Commodity market report

Global copper long-term outlook Q4 2015

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Report summary

The copper metal market service long term outlook (LTO) is published quarterly and provides a detailed forecast of copper supply and demand fundamentals out to 2035. This latest update highlights ongoing economic and demand side woes which have resulted in downgrades to our near term consumption projections. A succession of price related cutbacks have also led to a moderation in our supply growth forecasts. The net result is that the uptrend in stocks in days of consumption is expected to persist next year leading annual average prices lower in 2016 for the fifth consecutive year. This is expected to force out additional production and following a review of probable project timelines we now expect 2016 (rather than 2017) to represent the peak for inventories in terms of days consumption. This should help to buoy prices from 2017 which are projected to recover to our long term incentive level by 2022.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Copper Tables Q4 2015.pdf

    PDF 1.82 MB

  • Document

    Slide pack copper LTO Q4 2015.pdf

    PDF 818.20 KB

  • Document

    Demand main changes copper LTO Q4 2015.xls

    XLS 146.00 KB

  • Document

    Demand analysis copper LTO Q4 2015.xls

    XLS 1003.50 KB

  • Document

    Supply main changes copper LTO Q4 2015.xls

    XLS 109.00 KB

  • Document

    Production rankings copper LTO Q4 2015.xls

    XLS 64.00 KB

  • Document

    Equity Production copper LTO Q4 2015.xls

    XLS 9.75 MB

  • Document

    Mine analysis copper LTO Q4 2015.xls

    XLS 2.60 MB

  • Document

    Smelter analysis copper LTO Q4 2015.xls

    XLS 1.48 MB

  • Document

    Refinery analysis copper LTO Q4 2015.xls

    XLS 1.21 MB

  • Document

    Market balance and prices copper LTO Q4 2015.xls

    XLS 447.00 KB

  • Document

    Global copper long-term outlook Q4 2015

    PDF 638.71 KB

  • Document

    Global copper long-term outlook Q4 2015

    ZIP 6.88 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 81.21 KB

  • Document

    Demand

    PDF 242.23 KB

  • Document

    Supply

    PDF 288.70 KB

  • Document

    Supply-demand balances

    PDF 117.36 KB

Table of contents

Tables and charts

This report includes 53 images and tables including:

Images

  • Regional refined copper consumption, 2000 - 2035 kt Cu
  • Total copper consumption by property, 2000 - 2035 kt Cu
  • Indexed copper consumption growth - (2005=100)
  • Average annual global refined copper consumption - kt
  • Total copper consumption by industry sector, 2000 - 2035 kt Cu
  • Total copper semis production, 2000 - 2035 kt Cu
  • Global copper scrap consumption, 2000-2030 kt Cu
  • Global market demand for mine output
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 1
  • Global metal balances & LME copper price (2015$)
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 3

Tables

  • Regional refined copper consumption – kt
  • Middle East refined copper consumption - kt
  • Other refined copper consumption - kt
  • Disruptions Summary (copper in concentrate plus SxEw cathode)
  • Demand: Table 2
  • Demand: Table 3
  • Demand: Table 4
  • Demand: Table 5
  • Demand: Table 6
  • Demand: Table 7
  • Demand: Table 8
  • Base case regional copper mine production capability - kt Cu
  • Latin America & Caribbean copper mine production capability - kt Cu
  • Asia (excl. China) copper mine production capability - kt Cu
  • North America copper mine production capability - kt Cu
  • Oceania copper mine production capability - kt Cu
  • Africa copper mine production capability - kt Cu
  • Europe copper mine production capability - kt Cu
  • China copper mine production capability - kt Cu
  • Middle East copper mine production capability - kt Cu
  • Russia and the Caspian mine production capability – kt Cu
  • Incremental Cu market demand and highly probable, probable and possible Cu project production (kt Cu)
  • Copper smelter production capability (kt Cu)
  • Africa copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
  • Asia (excl. China) copper smelter production capability - kt
  • China copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
  • Latin America & Caribbean copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
  • Europe copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
  • North America copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
  • Middle East copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
  • Oceania copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
  • Russia and the Caspian copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
  • Regional copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
  • China copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
  • Asia (excl. China) copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
  • Europe copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
  • Africa copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
  • North America copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
  • Middle East copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
  • Oceania copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
  • Russia and the Caspian copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
  • Latin America and the Caribbean copper refinery production capability - kt Cu

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