Commodity Market Report

Global copper long-term outlook Q4 2016

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15 December 2016

Global copper long-term outlook Q4 2016

Report summary

The copper metal market service long term outlook (LTO) is published quarterly and provides a detailed forecast of copper supply and demand fundamentals out to 2035. 2016 looks set to be a turning point for the copper market. Over the next few years, as output growth slows and demand continues to expand, the market will tighten once again. This will drive prices higher and should also encourage more scrap back into the system. A strong recovery in prices from 2019 will offer producers sufficient confidence to encourage additional supply. However, the long lead times required to bring on new capacity mean that there will be a period of supply deficits. As inventories fall well below equilibrium levels of 65 days, prices will trade to a peak by 2023. Once new supply reaches the market, prices will reverse their upward trend to fall to our forecast long-term incentive price level by 2026.

Table of contents

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What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Slide pack copper LTO Q4 2016.pdf

    PDF 1.01 MB

  • Document

    Copper Tables Q4 2016.pdf

    PDF 1.77 MB

  • Document

    Copper LTO Document Tables Q4 2016.xls

    XLS 713.00 KB

  • Document

    Demand main changes copper LTO Q4 2016.xls

    XLS 154.00 KB

  • Document

    Demand analysis copper LTO Q4 2016.xls

    XLS 1021.00 KB

  • Document

    Supply main changes copper LTO Q4 2016.xls

    XLS 117.50 KB

  • Document

    Production rankings copper LTO Q4 2016.xls

    XLS 66.00 KB

  • Document

    Equity Production copper LTO Q4 2016.xls

    XLS 9.88 MB

  • Document

    Mine analysis copper LTO Q4 2016.xls

    XLS 2.68 MB

  • Document

    Smelter analysis copper LTO Q4 2016.xls

    XLS 1.48 MB

  • Document

    Refinery analysis copper LTO Q4 2016.xls

    XLS 1.27 MB

  • Document

    Market balance and prices copper LTO Q4 2016.xls

    XLS 487.00 KB

  • Document

    Global copper long-term outlook Q4 2016

    ZIP 6.86 MB

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