Commodity market report
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Global copper long-term outlook Q4 2016

Global copper long-term outlook Q4 2016

Report summary

The copper metal market service long term outlook (LTO) is published quarterly and provides a detailed forecast of copper supply and demand fundamentals out to 2035. 2016 looks set to be a turning point for the copper market. Over the next few years, as output growth slows and demand continues to expand, the market will tighten once again. This will drive prices higher and should also encourage more scrap back into the system. A strong recovery in prices from 2019 will offer producers sufficient confidence to encourage additional supply. However, the long lead times required to bring on new capacity mean that there will be a period of supply deficits. As inventories fall well below equilibrium levels of 65 days, prices will trade to a peak by 2023. Once new supply reaches the market, prices will reverse their upward trend to fall to our forecast long-term incentive price level by 2026.

What's included?

This report includes 12 file(s)

  • Slide pack copper LTO Q4 2016.pdf PDF - 1.01 MB
  • Copper Tables Q4 2016.pdf PDF - 1.77 MB
  • Copper LTO Document Tables Q4 2016.xls XLS - 713.00 KB
  • Demand main changes copper LTO Q4 2016.xls XLS - 154.00 KB
  • Demand analysis copper LTO Q4 2016.xls XLS - 1021.00 KB
  • Supply main changes copper LTO Q4 2016.xls XLS - 117.50 KB
  • Production rankings copper LTO Q4 2016.xls XLS - 67.00 KB
  • Equity Production copper LTO Q4 2016.xls XLS - 9.88 MB
  • Mine analysis copper LTO Q4 2016.xls XLS - 2.68 MB
  • Smelter analysis copper LTO Q4 2016.xls XLS - 1.48 MB
  • Refinery analysis copper LTO Q4 2016.xls XLS - 1.27 MB
  • Market balance and prices copper LTO Q4 2016.xls XLS - 487.00 KB


As global demand weakens and commodity prices fall, we're seeing a challenging environment in the metals and mining industry. Mining companies are increasingly coming under pressure to reduce operating costs, causing many to shift their strategic planning, delay new investments and look to long-term future growth.

This Copper Long Term Outlook report provides a detailed breakdown of global supply and demand balances in this market, as well as price forecasts.

Mining companies, investment banks and investors can use this report to understand the future direction of the ferrous and base metals market. It will also help you assess the impact of key industry issues and events on market balances and pricing.

From acquisitions to investments, Wood Mackenzie helps you plan, forecast and benchmark in the metals markets. Our proprietary database and analyst expertise combines robust production, consumption and pricing data with detailed analysis to identify market opportunities.

We give you a holistic view of the ferrous and base metals markets so you have the confidence to make strategic decisions.

  • Executive summary
    • Supply-demand balances
    • Demand
    • Supply
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Wood Mackenzie, a Verisk Analytics business, has been a trusted source of commercial intelligence for the world's natural resources sector for more than 40 years, empowering clients to make better strategic decisions with objective analysis and advice.

We work across every sector of oil, gas, power, renewables, chemicals, metals and mining, covering more than 150 countries. Our proprietary data and models are at the core of everything we do, ensuring our independent asset and company valuations are thoroughly robust and that we offer an accurate forward-looking view of economic indicators such as market supply, demand and price trends.

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At every stage, our teams readily collaborate and share their insight to provide an integrated perspective across entire industries. It is this unique and rigorous analytical approach that ensures we are recognised as the industry standard by the world’s most innovative organisations.