A balanced market is forecast over the next couple of years. Positive mine supply growth (after disruptions) will be set against moderate demand growth given an anticipated slowdown in China. As inventories are drawn down gradually towards our long-term average of 65 days of consumption, we expect annual average prices to trend to our long-term incentive price by 2020. The long lead times required to bring on new capacity means that there will be a period of consistent supply deficits from 2021 and as metal inventories fall well below equilibrium levels of 65 days, prices will overshoot our long-term average. These elevated prices should provide sufficient confidence to encourage producers to bring new capacity into production. Once new supply starts to reach the market, surpluses should emerge from 2025 with prices reversing their upward trend and falling to our forecast long-term incentive price by 2027.