Commodity market report

Global copper long-term outlook Q4 2017

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Report summary

A balanced market is forecast over the next couple of years. Positive mine supply growth (after disruptions) will be set against moderate demand growth given an anticipated slowdown in China. As inventories are drawn down gradually towards our long-term average of 65 days of consumption, we expect annual average prices to trend to our long-term incentive price by 2020. The long lead times required to bring on new capacity means that there will be a period of consistent supply deficits from 2021 and as metal inventories fall well below equilibrium levels of 65 days, prices will overshoot our long-term average. These elevated prices should provide sufficient confidence to encourage producers to bring new capacity into production. Once new supply starts to reach the market, surpluses should emerge from 2025 with prices reversing their upward trend and falling to our forecast long-term incentive price by 2027.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    LTO Slidepack Copper Q4 2017.pdf

    PDF 1.46 MB

  • Document

    Copper Tables Q4 2017.pdf

    PDF 1.79 MB

  • Document

    Copper LTO Document Tables Q4 2017.xls

    XLS 4.09 MB

  • Document

    Demand main changes copper LTO Q4 2017.xls

    XLS 149.50 KB

  • Document

    Demand analysis copper LTO Q4 2017.xls

    XLS 1.08 MB

  • Document

    Supply main changes copper LTO Q4 2017.xls

    XLS 97.50 KB

  • Document

    Production rankings copper LTO Q4 2017.xls

    XLS 72.50 KB

  • Document

    Equity Production copper LTO Q4 2017.xls

    XLS 9.82 MB

  • Document

    Mine analysis copper LTO Q4 2017.xls

    XLS 2.65 MB

  • Document

    Smelter analysis copper LTO Q4 2017.xls

    XLS 1.48 MB

  • Document

    Refinery analysis copper LTO Q4 2017.xls

    XLS 1.22 MB

  • Document

    Market balance and prices copper LTO Q4 2017.xls

    XLS 483.00 KB

  • Document

    Global copper long-term outlook Q4 2017

    ZIP 7.50 MB

Table of contents

Tables and charts

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