Commodity Market Report

Global copper short-term outlook April 2018

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30 April 2018

Global copper short-term outlook April 2018

Report summary

Heightened trade and political tensions have been a feature of the markets over the past couple of months, with April being no exception, leading to on-going price volatility across the LME base metals complex. We are forecasting a further 2.1% increase in global refined consumption to 23.5Mt in 2018 after an estimated 2.1% advance to 23.0Mt in 2017. Growth in refined cathode consumption was constrained in 2017 as consumers were able to benefit from healthy scrap flows. Although China remains central to our forecast, we expect a better contribution from other regions in the coming years. The spread between mine to trader and Chinese smelter buying widened significantly during April, with particularly sharp terms agreed by merchants for deliveries through 2019. Traders reported a relatively quiet market in April, but of the tenders we have heard about during the month, all were settled at lower levels relative to those in March.

Table of contents

    • Copper key forecasts
    • Market developments
      • Price forecasts and world quarterly supply/demand balance - (kt)
    • Italy
    • USA
    • Thailand
      • Production and shipments of copper wire rod and copper semis - kt
    • Concentrate markets
      • Global copper-in-concentrate stock changes - (kt Cu)
      • Blister market RCs
      • Global mine production - breakdown by product type (kt copper in concentrate & leach output)

Tables and charts

This report includes 22 images and tables including:

  • Executive summary: Table 1
  • LME cash price and 3-month spread
  • CFTC positions
  • Regional exchange stocks (kt)
  • Cancelled Warrants as % of LME Stocks
  • Chinese copper scrap trade
  • Italian output of copper and copper alloy semis
  • Thailand continues to expand its net exports of copper wire rod and drawn wire
  • Concentrate market TCRCs
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 1
  • Demand: Table 1
  • Global quarterly refined copper consumption - kt
  • Supply: Table 2
  • Supply: Table 3
  • Supply: Table 4
  • Supply: Table 5
  • Supply: Table 6
  • Supply: Table 7
  • Supply: Table 8
  • Supply: Table 9
  • Supply: Table 10
  • Supply: Table 11

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global copper short-term outlook April 2018

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    Global copper short-term outlook April 2018

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  • Document

    Global copper short-term outlook data tables April 2018.xls

    XLS 338.00 KB