Commodity market report
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30 Pages

Global copper short-term outlook August 2016

Global copper short-term outlook August 2016

Report summary

The copper market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of copper supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. Copper prices remained rangebound during July, trading largely within a band of $4,700/t-$4,950/t. As nerves calmed following the Brexit-led sell-off, fund sentiment towards the copper market improved in late June and early July. This continued through mid-month as Chinese macroeconomic data generally met market expectations and helped to drive a more risk-on attitude, underpinning copper quotes. With demand in off-season, prices are likely to remain rangebound over the short term. We continue to forecast a moderate statistical market surplus for 2016, of around 90kt. As a result, global refined metal inventories are set to remain at elevated levels of 74 days in terms of consumption which will continue to weigh on copper prices over the balance of the year.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Global copper short-term outlook August 2016 PDF - 496.54 KB 30 Pages, 16 Tables, 7 Figures
  • Data tables copper STO August 2016.xls XLS - 336.50 KB


As global demand weakens and commodity prices fall, we're seeing a challenging environment in the metals and mining industry. Mining companies are increasingly coming under pressure to reduce operating costs, causing many to shift their strategic planning, delay new investments and look to long-term future growth.

This Copper Short Term Outlook report provides a detailed breakdown of global supply and demand balances in this market, as well as price forecasts.

Mining companies, investment banks and investors can use this report to understand the future direction of the ferrous and base metals market. It will also help you assess the impact of key industry issues and events on market balances and pricing.

From acquisitions to investments, Wood Mackenzie helps you plan, forecast and benchmark in the metals markets. Our proprietary database and analyst expertise combines robust production, consumption and pricing data with detailed analysis to identify market opportunities.

We give you a holistic view of the ferrous and base metals markets so you have the confidence to make strategic decisions.

  • Executive summary
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Market developments
      • Price forecasts and world quarterly supply/demand balance - (kt)
  • Demand
    • China
    • Europe
      • Aurubis's wire rod production remains high, but growth slows
  • Supply
    • Concentrate markets
      • Blister/anode and scrap markets
      • Production news

In this report there are 23 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Copper key forecasts
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Volumes traded at key commodity exchanges in China
    • Comex managed money positioning
    • LME 3-month copper price
    • Exchange stocks - quarterly
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 1
  • Demand
    • SOE investment supports housing supply
    • Chinese industrial profitability on a downward path since 2012
    • Demand: Image 3
    • Demand: Table 1
    • Production and shipments of copper wire rod and copper semis - kt
    • Global quarterly refined copper consumption - kt
  • Supply
    • Concentrate market TCRCs
    • Global copper-in-concentrate stock changes - (kt Cu)
    • Blister market RCs
    • Global mine production – breakdown by product type (kt copper in concentrate & leach output)
    • Global copper refined consumption - (kt)
    • Global copper mine production - (kt copper in concentrate & leach output)
    • Global copper smelter production - (kt)
    • Global copper refinery production - (kt)
    • Copper stocks
    • Copper prices and premia
    • Copper supply/demand balance global summary - (kt)
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