Commodity market report

Global copper short-term outlook August 2016

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Report summary

The copper market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of copper supply and demand fundamentals over the next two years. Copper prices remained rangebound during July trading largely within a band of $4 700/t $4 950/t. As nerves calmed following the Brexit led sell off fund sentiment towards the copper market improved in late June and early July. This continued through mid month as Chinese macroeconomic data generally met market expectations and helped to drive a more risk on attitude underpinning copper quotes. With demand in off season prices are likely to remain rangebound over the short term. We continue to forecast a moderate statistical market surplus for 2016 of around 90kt. As a result global refined metal inventories are set to remain at elevated levels of 74 days in terms of consumption which will continue to weigh on copper prices over the balance of the year.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Data tables copper STO August 2016.xls

    XLS 336.50 KB

  • Document

    Global copper short-term outlook August 2016

    PDF 496.54 KB

  • Document

    Global copper short-term outlook August 2016

    ZIP 629.24 KB

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Supply-demand balances
  • Demand
  • Supply

Tables and charts

This report includes 23 images and tables including:

Images

  • Volumes traded at key commodity exchanges in China
  • Comex managed money positioning
  • LME 3-month copper price
  • Exchange stocks - quarterly
  • SOE investment supports housing supply
  • Chinese industrial profitability on a downward path since 2012
  • Demand: Image 3

Tables

  • Copper key forecasts
  • Concentrate market TCRCs
  • Global copper-in-concentrate stock changes - (kt Cu)
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 1
  • Demand: Table 1
  • Production and shipments of copper wire rod and copper semis - kt
  • Global quarterly refined copper consumption - kt
  • Blister market RCs
  • Global mine production – breakdown by product type (kt copper in concentrate & leach output)
  • Global copper refined consumption - (kt)
  • Global copper mine production - (kt copper in concentrate & leach output)
  • Global copper smelter production - (kt)
  • Global copper refinery production - (kt)
  • Copper stocks
  • Copper prices and premia
  • Copper supply/demand balance global summary - (kt)

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