Global copper short-term outlook February 2019

February turned out to be a month of two halves for the copper market as initial price gains were virtually wiped out by mid-month. However, subsequent fundamental support over the balance of February helped to propel 3-month quotes to levels last seen in July of last year. Information gathered following a recent research trip to India has led to revisions of direct use of scrap forecasts in the country in 2018 and has updated our understanding of copper semis plant start ups. In addition, improved copper semis output and sales Brazil alongside solid results emerging from Polish copper semis producers, have led to minor alterations to our refined consumption forecasts for the short term. Meanwhile, mine disruptions begin to filter through, however, our supply/demand balance for this year remains broadly unchanged over last month's forecast.