Global copper short-term outlook January 2019 Report

Commodity Market Report 31 January 2019

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Report summary

Copper prices traded in a relatively narrow range during January, although the general trend was upwards over the month. Trade tensions and the outlook for the global economy continued to weigh on expectations. Against this backdrop and with the approaching Chinese New Year break, there has been limited interest from traders and consumers alike, each unwilling to sit on inventories ahead of the Spring Festival. An underperforming manufacturing sector in Germany and disappointing domestic demand in South Korea have led to downward revisions to refined copper consumption growth in 2018 and adjustments to 2019 growth. Meanwhile in China, changes to the scrap import policy will likely continue to be an important factor in determining refined demand growth this year. We continue to estimate that the fundamental supply/demand balance outlook for 2019 will be positive.

Executive summary
- Copper key forecasts
Supply-demand balances
- Market developments
  - Equities and copper prices
  - Three-month copper price and effective US$ exchange rate
Demand
- China
- South Korea
  - Production and shipments of copper wire rod and copper semis - kt
Supply
- Concentrate markets
  - Global copper-in-concentrate stock changes - (kt Cu)
  - Blister market RCs
  - Global mine production - breakdown by product type (kt copper in concentrate & leach output)
  - Global copper refined consumption - (kt)

Tables and charts

This report includes 23 images and tables including:

Executive summary: Table 1
Property completions showed signs of recovery by the end of 2018
Quarterly German auto industry statistics

Year on year German auto production output change
South Korean copper semis production and year on year domestic copper consumption
Concentrate market TCRCs
Supply-demand balances: Image 1
Supply-demand balances: Image 2
Regional copper stocks (kt)
Regional month on month stock changes (kt)
Supply-demand balances: Table 1
Demand: Table 1
Global quarterly refined copper consumption - kt
Supply: Table 2
Supply: Table 3
Supply: Table 4
Supply: Table 5
Supply: Table 6
Supply: Table 7
Supply: Table 8
Supply: Table 9
Supply: Table 10
Supply: Table 11