Global copper short-term outlook January 2021 Report

Commodity Market Report 29 January 2021

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Report summary

Since hitting a peak early on in January, copper prices have come under pressure through the month as a risk off tone has now set in. Despite a consistent decline in visible exchange stocks, rising virus cases and a tightening in Chinese credit availability amid concerns about a property bubble point to an increasingly cloudier outlook for demand this year. Despite robust mine supply growth in 2021, the recovery in demand will keep the market finely balanced and we expect prices to rise on an average annual basis. Nevertheless, we maintain our view that the market is headed for a period of oversupply from 2022 following several years of above average mine supply growth. Prices should yield to the surplus that are anticipated to emerge in the refined market.

Market developments
- Japan
- Poland
- Russia
Concentrate markets
- China concentrate markets
- Blister/anode and scrap markets
- Production news
- Project development
- Corporate activity

Tables and charts

This report includes 25 images and tables including:

LME cash price and 3-month spread ($/t)
Regional exchange stocks (kt)
Regional exchange stocks - monthly changes (kt)

Copper market balance and prices
Copper prices and stocks in days of consumption
Price forecasts and world quarterly supply/demand balance (kt)
Concentrate market TCRCs
Global copper-in-concentrate stock changes (kt Cu)
IP index for key end-use sectors (seasonally adjusted, 2015 = 100)
IP index (seasonally adjusted, 2015=100)
Auto sector production and sales
Polish monthly copper and copper alloy semis production
Index of Industrial production (2018=100)
Manufacturing PMI
Production and shipments of copper wire rod and copper semis - kt
Global quarterly refined copper consumption - kt
Blister market RC
Global mine production - breakdown by product type (kt copper in concentrate & leach output)
Global copper refined consumption (kt)
Global copper mine production (kt copper in concentrate & leach output)
Global copper smelter production (kt)
Global copper refinery production (kt)
Copper stocks
Copper prices and premia
Copper supply/demand balance global summary (kt)