Commodity market report

Global copper short-term outlook July 2016

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Report summary

The copper market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of copper supply and demand fundamentals over the next two years. Copper prices remained rangebound during July trading largely within a band of $4 700/t $4 950/t. As nerves calmed following the Brexit led sell off fund sentiment towards the copper market improved in late June and early July. This continued through mid month as Chinese macroeconomic data generally met market expectations and helped to drive a more risk on attitude underpinning copper quotes. With demand in off season prices are likely to remain rangebound over the short term. We continue to forecast a moderate statistical market surplus for 2016 of around 90kt. As a result global refined metal inventories are set to remain at elevated levels of 74 days in terms of consumption which will continue to weigh on copper prices over the balance of the year.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Data tables copper STO July 2016.xls

    XLS 276.00 KB

  • Document

    Global copper short-term outlook July 2016

    PDF 548.07 KB

  • Document

    Global copper short-term outlook July 2016

    ZIP 628.27 KB

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Supply-demand balances
  • Demand
  • Supply

Tables and charts

This report includes 25 images and tables including:

Images

  • Comex managed money positioning
  • LME managed money positioning
  • China GDP by component (annual % growth)
  • China fixed asset investment
  • China stock distribution
  • Ex-China exchange stocks
  • Mexico's share of North American vehicle output is on the up
  • Thailand net wire rod exports
  • Japanese brass mill production
  • Japanese wire and cable shipments

Tables

  • Copper key forecasts
  • Production and shipments of copper wire rod and copper semis - kt
  • Global quarterly refined copper consumption - kt
  • Concentrate market TCRCs
  • Global copper-in-concentrate stock changes - (kt Cu)
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 1
  • Blister market RCs
  • Global mine production – breakdown by product type (kt copper in concentrate & leach output)
  • Global copper refined consumption - (kt)
  • Global copper mine production - (kt copper in concentrate & leach output)
  • Global copper smelter production - (kt)
  • Global copper refinery production - (kt)
  • Copper stocks
  • Copper prices and premia
  • Copper supply/demand balance global summary - (kt)

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