Global copper short-term outlook June 2017

The copper market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of copper supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. The combination of positive macro news flows, a weaker dollar as well as inventory declines on both the LME and SHFE, all helped to push copper higher over the closing days of June. Prices rallied to just shy of $6,000/t, to their highest level since the end of March. In the physical market, a drawdown in Chinese inventory has sparked some upward moves in physical premia there. However, spot premia in Europe and the United States remain broadly subdued with consumers remaining well covered for material. Overall for this year the copper market is expected to be largely in balance and this, coupled with expectations for an appreciating US dollar and higher interest rates, will constrain the extent of any upward price moves over the balance of the year.