Commodity Market Report
Global copper short-term outlook March 2019
Report summary
The rally in prices that was very much in evidence through February, ran out of steam in March against a backdrop of weaker macro economic data and a hike in LME inventories. The volume of inventory that was eventually attracted back onto the exchange, helped lift stocks off their multi-year lows and saw the cash to three months backwardation narrow. Global copper demand growth in 2018 turned out to be slightly weaker than suggested in our previous report. A contraction in semis production in a number of countries combined with lower than anticipated mine disruptions kept the market in balance in 2018. Over the next couple of years, tightening metal market fundamentals against a backdrop of moderating demand growth and weak mine supply will drag inventories well below equilibrium levels of 65 days and encourage a rally in prices. The anticipated rise in prices should provide sufficient confidence to encourage new supply back to the market by 2021.
Table of contents
- Market developments
- China
- USA
- Taiwan
-
Concentrate markets
- Blister/anode and scrap markets
- Production news
Tables and charts
This report includes 20 images and tables including:
- LME cash price and 3-month spread
- LME copper prices vs trade weighted dollar index
- Managed money CFTC positions
- LME stocks and cash to 3-month backwardation
- Price forecasts and world quarterly supply/demand balance (kt)
- Actual spend vs. investment budget from the State Grid
- US housing starts and completions, k units
- Production and shipments of copper wire rod and copper semis - kt
- Global quarterly refined copper consumption - kt
- Concentrate market TCRCs
- Global copper-in-concentrate stock changes (kt Cu)
- Blister market RC
- Global mine production - breakdown by product type (kt copper in concentrate & leach output)
- Global copper refined consumption (kt)
- Global copper mine production (kt copper in concentrate & leach output)
- Global copper smelter production (kt)
- Global copper refinery production (kt)
- Copper stocks
- Copper prices and premia
- Copper supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
What's included
This report contains:
Other reports you may be interested in
Commodity Market Report
Global copper short-term outlook March 2024
The dominant factors influencing the copper market near term are supply side challenges and extremely low visible metal inventories.
$5,000
Commodity Market Report
Global copper short-term outlook February 2024
Short term price direction is reliant on market sentiment, driven by a combination of macroeconomic developments and supply disruptions
$5,000
Commodity Market Report
Global lead short-term outlook March 2024
The increase in LME stocks in March has been a bearish optic but data do not point to a sudden deterioration in lead's fundamentals.
$5,000