Commodity Market Report

Global copper short-term outlook March 2019

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31 March 2019

Global copper short-term outlook March 2019

Report summary

The rally in prices that was very much in evidence through February, ran out of steam in March against a backdrop of weaker macro economic data and a hike in LME inventories. The volume of inventory that was eventually attracted back onto the exchange, helped lift stocks off their multi-year lows and saw the cash to three months backwardation narrow. Global copper demand growth in 2018 turned out to be slightly weaker than suggested in our previous report. A contraction in semis production in a number of countries combined with lower than anticipated mine disruptions kept the market in balance in 2018. Over the next couple of years, tightening metal market fundamentals against a backdrop of moderating demand growth and weak mine supply will drag inventories well below equilibrium levels of 65 days and encourage a rally in prices. The anticipated rise in prices should provide sufficient confidence to encourage new supply back to the market by 2021.

Table of contents

  • Market developments
  • China
  • USA
  • Taiwan
    • Blister/anode and scrap markets
    • Production news

Tables and charts

This report includes 20 images and tables including:

  • LME cash price and 3-month spread
  • LME copper prices vs trade weighted dollar index
  • Managed money CFTC positions
  • LME stocks and cash to 3-month backwardation
  • Price forecasts and world quarterly supply/demand balance (kt)
  • Actual spend vs. investment budget from the State Grid
  • US housing starts and completions, k units
  • Production and shipments of copper wire rod and copper semis - kt
  • Global quarterly refined copper consumption - kt
  • Concentrate market TCRCs
  • Global copper-in-concentrate stock changes (kt Cu)
  • Blister market RC
  • Global mine production - breakdown by product type (kt copper in concentrate & leach output)
  • Global copper refined consumption (kt)
  • Global copper mine production (kt copper in concentrate & leach output)
  • Global copper smelter production (kt)
  • Global copper refinery production (kt)
  • Copper stocks
  • Copper prices and premia
  • Copper supply/demand balance global summary (kt)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global copper short-term outlook data tables March 2019.xls

    XLS 305.00 KB

  • Document

    Global copper short-term outlook March 2019

    PDF 1.01 MB

  • Document

    Global copper short-term outlook March 2019

    ZIP 1.04 MB

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