Commodity market report
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30 Pages

Global copper short-term outlook May 2016

Global copper short-term outlook May 2016

Report summary

The copper metal market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of copper supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. Certainly for this May, the old adage of "sell in May and go away" seems to be at the forefront of market sentiment. After trading to a high of $5074/t on the final trading day of April, the price trend quickly reversed at the start of May and prices have remained under pressure through the month. The release of a stream of disappointing macro data, combined with the strengthening of the dollar during May, have been contributory factors. Looking ahead, upside potential for prices short term is expected to remain capped. This is in spite of the ongoing tightness in the scrap market, which is providing some support to refined demand and is helping to restrict the extent of the market oversupply.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Global copper short-term outlook May 2016 PDF - 511.30 KB 30 Pages, 15 Tables, 6 Figures
  • Data tables copper STO May 2016.xls XLS - 270.00 KB


As global demand weakens and commodity prices fall, we're seeing a challenging environment in the metals and mining industry. Mining companies are increasingly coming under pressure to reduce operating costs, causing many to shift their strategic planning, delay new investments and look to long-term future growth.

This Copper Short Term Outlook report provides a detailed breakdown of global supply and demand balances in this market, as well as price forecasts.

Mining companies, investment banks and investors can use this report to understand the future direction of the ferrous and base metals market. It will also help you assess the impact of key industry issues and events on market balances and pricing.

From acquisitions to investments, Wood Mackenzie helps you plan, forecast and benchmark in the metals markets. Our proprietary database and analyst expertise combines robust production, consumption and pricing data with detailed analysis to identify market opportunities.

We give you a holistic view of the ferrous and base metals markets so you have the confidence to make strategic decisions.

  • Executive summary
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Market developments
      • Price forecasts and world quarterly supply/demand balance - (kt)
  • Demand
    • China
    • Turkey
    • Poland
      • Production and shipments of copper wire rod and copper semis - kt
  • Supply
    • Concentrate markets
      • Blister/anode and scrap markets
      • Production news

In this report there are 21 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Copper key forecasts
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Copper exchange stocks and cash LME price
    • Monthly world scrap exports (kt gross weight)
    • Average copper prices ($/t) vs world scrap exports (kt gross weight)
    • Cancelled Warrants as % of LME Stocks
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 1
  • Demand
    • Grid spend target implies investment could tail off after January-April surge
    • Turkish auto sector outperforms construction and broader IP
    • Demand: Table 1
    • Global quarterly refined copper consumption - kt
  • Supply
    • Concentrate market TCRCs
    • Global copper-in-concentrate stock changes - (kt Cu)
    • Blister market RCs
    • Global mine production – breakdown by product type (kt copper in concentrate & leach output)
    • Global copper refined consumption - (kt)
    • Global copper mine production - (kt copper in concentrate & leach output)
    • Global copper smelter production - (kt)
    • Global copper refinery production - (kt)
    • Copper stocks
    • Copper prices and premia
    • Copper supply/demand balance global summary - (kt)
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