Commodity Market Report

Global copper short-term outlook November 2017

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Report summary

Demand is unlikely to break out of its moderate growth path over the next few years, given the anticipated slowdown in China on both the property and infrastructure side.  Against a backdrop of rising mine production, output in both 2018 and 2019 of around 2.5% in each year, we continue to forecast largely stable cathode inventories in the short term. It is the expectation that the US dollar will strengthen on the back of the Fed unwinding its huge stimulus programme that is likely to temper further increases in copper prices over the next couple of years. However it is becoming increasingly clear that there could be significant support for higher prices in 2018 and into 2019 in the form of upcoming labour negotiations that are due both in Chile and Peru.  

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Global copper short-term outlook data tables November 2017.xls

    XLS 281.50 KB

  • Document

    Global copper short-term outlook November 2017

    PDF 479.55 KB

  • Document

    Global copper short-term outlook November 2017

    ZIP 562.42 KB

Table of contents

Tables and charts

This report includes 18 images and tables including:

Tables

  • Copper key forecasts
  • Price forecasts and world quarterly supply/demand balance - (kt)
  • Concentrate market TCRCs
  • Global copper-in-concentrate stock changes - (kt Cu)
  • Demand: Table 1
  • Global quarterly refined copper consumption - kt
  • Blister market RCs
  • Global mine production - breakdown by product type (kt copper in concentrate & leach output)
  • Global copper refined consumption - (kt)
  • Global copper mine production - (kt copper in concentrate & leach output)
  • Global copper smelter production - (kt)
  • Global copper refinery production - (kt)
  • Copper stocks
  • Copper prices and premia
  • Copper supply/demand balance global summary - (kt)

Images

  • LME 3-month prices ($/t) and Exchange stocks (kt)
  • Italian output of copper and copper alloy semis
  • Export demand for semis is stronger than domestic demand

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