Commodity Market Report

Global copper short-term outlook November 2018

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30 November 2018

Global copper short-term outlook November 2018

Report summary

It has been a quiet month for copper in November with prices trading in a well-defined range. The industry gathered in Shanghai mid-month during Asia CESCO Week (ACW) and the overriding theme was one of uncertainty over global economic prospects and the recognition that at current levels, copper prices do not reflect the supply/demand fundamentals. Newly available Chinese trade data for copper cathode has shown much stronger refined copper imports than our original assumptions based on total copper imports. The knock on effect of the revisions that we have made to China on the demand side as well as the adjustments to our production figures now means that the outlook for copper over the next several years is now much tighter compared to our previous forecast. Meanwhile, the first settlement in the 2019 long-term Mating Season was reached during Asia CESCO Week in Shanghai. Antofagasta Minerals was widely reported to have settled with Jiangxi Copper at a level of $80.8/t & 8.08c/lb.

Table of contents

    • Copper key forecasts
    • Market developments
      • Price forecasts and world quarterly supply/demand balance - (kt)
    • Japan
    • USA
    • Europe – France, Greece, Spain and Sweden
      • Production and shipments of copper wire rod and copper semis - kt
    • Concentrate markets
      • Global copper-in-concentrate stock changes - (kt Cu)
      • Blister market RCs
      • Global mine production - breakdown by product type (kt copper in concentrate & leach output)
      • Global copper refined consumption - (kt)

Tables and charts

This report includes 24 images and tables including:

  • Executive summary: Table 1
  • LME 3-month price and cash to 3-month spread
  • SHFE front month vs LME cash prices
  • 2015 split of Chinese copper imports
  • 2018 split of Chinese copper imports
  • Japanese brass mill shipments
  • Japanese wire and cable shipments
  • US wire rod imports are now exceeding exports
  • French, Greek, Spanish and Swedish refined copper consumption
  • Refined copper consumption comparison against the Rest of Europe
  • Concentrate market TCRCs
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 1
  • Demand: Table 1
  • Global quarterly refined copper consumption - kt
  • Supply: Table 2
  • Supply: Table 3
  • Supply: Table 4
  • Supply: Table 5
  • Supply: Table 6
  • Supply: Table 7
  • Supply: Table 8
  • Supply: Table 9
  • Supply: Table 10
  • Supply: Table 11

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global copper short-term outlook data tables November 2018.xls

    XLS 324.00 KB

  • Document

    Global copper short-term outlook November 2018

    PDF 945.14 KB

  • Document

    Global copper short-term outlook November 2018

    ZIP 982.78 KB

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