Global copper short-term outlook November 2020

We have seen copper ascend erratically higher throughout November to hit highs of over US$7600/t. Copper's rise has come on the back of improving sentiment for demand on the back of recent developments on Covid-19 vaccines, persistently elevated refined cathode imports into China, and amid the anticipated requirement for copper to meet countries’ pledges to decarbonise their economies which has continued to attract speculative interest. Nevertheless, we maintain our view that the market is headed for a period of oversupply as we continue to anticipate above average mine supply growth of almost 5.0% over the next two years (after disruptions). This will keep the refined market firmly in surplus and weigh on prices as stocks in days of consumption rise.