Commodity market report

Global copper short-term outlook September 2016

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Report summary

The copper market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of copper supply and demand fundamentals over the next two years. Copper has recovered from its lows in mid September supported by the weaker dollar as well as new longs entering the market as speculators reduced their bearish stance on the metal. As metal has continued to flow out of the China reduced domestic inventories have triggered a recovery in premia as fabricators step back into the spot market. Interest elsewhere continues to remain lacklustre amid ongoing concerns about the outlook for the global economy. Meanwhile the industry is starting to prepare for the Mating Season and with the cathode market expected to remain in balance in 2017 and with scrap still expected to remain tight producers will be inclined to maintain current benchmark levels.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Data tables copper STO September 2016.xls

    XLS 276.50 KB

  • Document

    Global copper short-term outlook September 2016

    PDF 465.65 KB

  • Document

    Global copper short-term outlook September 2016

    ZIP 548.91 KB

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Supply-demand balances
  • Demand
  • Supply

Tables and charts

This report includes 23 images and tables including:

Images

  • Share of stock repositioned from SHFE in Q1...
  • ...to LME Asia
  • Declining Chinese cathode imports...
  • ...supports the re-emergence of the arbitrage
  • South Korea wire rod production
  • Taiwan wire rod production
  • US brass mill output
  • US new orders for oil and gas machinery

Tables

  • Copper key forecasts
  • Concentrate market TCRCs
  • Global copper-in-concentrate stock changes - (kt Cu)
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 1
  • Demand: Table 1
  • Global quarterly refined copper consumption - kt
  • Blister market RCs
  • Global mine production – breakdown by product type (kt copper in concentrate & leach output)
  • Global copper refined consumption - (kt)
  • Global copper mine production - (kt copper in concentrate & leach output)
  • Global copper smelter production - (kt)
  • Global copper refinery production - (kt)
  • Copper stocks
  • Copper prices and premia
  • Copper supply/demand balance global summary - (kt)

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