Commodity market report
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54 Pages

Global iron ore long-term outlook Q1 2014

Global iron ore long-term outlook Q1 2014

Report summary

The net impact of adjustments to our supply and demand forecasts has resulted in a more severely oversupplied market for the next five years than previously thought. This is mostly due to higher supply rather than lower demand. We have lowered our price forecast for 2014 to $112/t CFR. Smaller downward adjustments have been made throughout the forecast period with the low point of the current cycle occurring in 2017 with prices falling to an annual average of $90/t CFR (real 2014 terms).

What's included?

This report includes 3 file(s)

  • Global iron ore long-term outlook Q1 2014 PDF - 5.25 MB 54 Pages, 13 Tables, 30 Figures
  • IOMS LTO Overview Q1 2014.pdf PDF - 846.37 KB
  • IOMSLT Q12014 ExtractV1.4.xls XLS - 1.21 MB


As global demand weakens and commodity prices fall, we're seeing a challenging environment in the metals and mining industry. Mining companies are increasingly coming under pressure to reduce operating costs, causing many to shift their strategic planning, delay new investments and look to long-term future growth.

This Iron Ore Long Term Outlook report provides a detailed breakdown of global supply and demand balances in this market, as well as price forecasts.

Mining companies, investment banks and investors can use this report to understand the future direction of the ferrous and base metals market. It will also help you assess the impact of key industry issues and events on market balances and pricing.

From acquisitions to investments, Wood Mackenzie helps you plan, forecast and benchmark in the metals markets. Our proprietary database and analyst expertise combines robust production, consumption and pricing data with detailed analysis to identify market opportunities.

We give you a holistic view of the ferrous and base metals markets so you have the confidence to make strategic decisions.

  • Executive summary
    • Demand summary
    • Supply summary
    • Price summary
  • Demand
  • Global Overview
  • Asia
    • China
      • Steel and hot metal outlook
        • Urbanisation will continue to support steel demand and production growth
      • Iron ore demand outlook
        • The impact of environmental legislation on iron ore demand
        • Import demand outlook
        • Japan
        • South Korea
        • Taiwan
        • India
        • Other Asia
        • Europe
        • CIS
        • North America
        • South America
        • Middle East
        • Africa & Oceania
  • Supply
  • What’s changed?
    • Iron ore exports by key company
  • Asia
    • India
      • Summary
      • Short to medium term outlook
      • Long-term outlook
    • Other Asia
  • Europe
  • CIS
    • Russian Federation
    • Ukraine
    • Kazakhstan
  • North America
    • Canada
    • United States
    • Mexico
  • South America
    • Brazil
      • Vale
      • Other Brazilian Producers
      • Other South America
      • Africa
        • South Africa
        • Mauritania
        • West Africa (excluding Mauritania)
      • Australia
        • Overview
          • Key changes to our assumptions for Australia
        • Rio Tinto
        • BHP Billiton
        • FMG
        • Australian non-majors
      • Middle East
  • Supply-demand balances
  • What’s changed?
    • Iron ore price forecast: sinter fines, FOB Australia
  • The medium term outlook to 2018
    • Market balance and price outlook
    • Lump premia
      • Past trends in lump premia
      • Future trends in lump premia
    • Pellet premia
      • Past trends in pellet premia
      • Future trends in pellet premia
      • The Long Term Outlook (post 2018)
        • Overview
          • The long run supply/demand balance
            • Long run marginal cost
          • Long run incentive price

In this report there are 43 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Iron ore market balance and price forecast
    • Iron ore price forecast: fines (62% Fe), US$/dmt
  • Demand
  • Global Overview
    • Key demand forecast data
    • Global consumption of iron ore by product
    • Growth in iron ore consumption and imports
  • Asia
    • Demand: Table 2
    • Chinese steel production and demand is expected to peak in the next decade
    • We expect to see hot metal production peak earlier than steel due to the scrap effect
    • Input ore grade and burden mix in blast furnaces
    • Import dependency will rise towards 87%
    • Asia (ex-China): key demand forecast data
    • Demand: Table 4
    • Demand: Table 5
    • Demand: Table 6
    • Demand: Table 7
    • Demand: Table 8
  • Supply
  • What’s changed?
    • Supply: Table 1
    • Supply: Table 2
  • Asia
    • Indian exports of iron ore: annual
    • Indian exports of iron ore: monthly
    • Chinese raw ore output continued to grow in 2013
    • But the marketable volume has already peaked, and is expected to be displaced aggressively
    • Full China iron ore cost curve 2013 ($/dmt @marketable grade)
    • Full China iron ore cost curve 2018 (adjusted to 62% Fe; assuming 5% cost cut, and $10/t discount to inland mines)
    • Supply: Image 7
  • Europe
  • CIS
  • North America
    • Canadian iron ore operations
  • South America
    • Iron ore exports: Brazil vs. Australia
    • Share of global exports: Brazil vs. Australia
    • Brazil's southern system
    • The Guinea/ Sierra Leone/ Liberia hub
    • Australia's Pilbara region
  • Supply-demand balances
  • What’s changed?
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 1
  • The medium term outlook to 2018
    • Iron ore trade balance (Mt)
    • Trade balance (as % of global imports)
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 1
    • Breakdown of Chinese ore production by cost (%)
    • Breakdown of Chinese ore production by cost (Mt)
    • Iron ore lump premia
    • Iron ore pellet premia
    • Iron ore long run supply/demand balance
    • Global cash cost curve: US$/dmt, CFR China, 62% Fe equivalent, basis Q4-13
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 2
    • Incentive price analysis for selected projects
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