Commodity market report

Global iron ore long-term outlook Q1 2015

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Report summary

Having already fallen by 50% in 2014, spot iron ore prices have dropped by almost 30% so far this year. We have lowered our price forecast for the period 2015-20 by an average of 17% to $69/t CFR (real 2015 terms). Our long term price forecast has been reduced to $80/t CFR (real 2015 terms) effective from 2020, to reflect the narrower long run "supply gap" and an approximate 15% fall in capital costs for new mine/infrastructure developments since our last assessment of project incentive prices.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Global iron ore long-term outlook Q1 2015

    PDF 3.07 MB

  • Document

    Global iron ore long-term outlook Q1 2015

    ZIP 3.06 MB

  • Document

    IOMS LT Datafile Q1 2015.xls

    XLS 952.50 KB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 109.36 KB

  • Document


    PDF 211.36 KB

  • Document


    PDF 2.64 MB

  • Document

    Supply-demand balances

    PDF 253.05 KB

Table of contents

Tables and charts

This report includes 45 images and tables including:


  • Iron ore market balance and price forecast
  • Global consumption of iron ore by product
  • Growth in iron ore consumption and imports
  • Iron ore price forecast: sinter fines, FOB Australia
  • Chinese steel demand by end-use sector in 2014 (%)
  • Hot metal production vs. scrap supply
  • Burden mix in blast furnaces
  • China iron ore demand, supply and imports
  • Iron ore trade balance (Mt)
  • Trade balance (as % of global imports)
  • Iron ore lump premia
  • Iron ore pellet premia
  • Global cash cost curve: US$/dmt, CFR China, 62% Fe equivalent, basis Q4-14.
  • Incentive price analysis for selected projects
  • Indian crude steel production: history and forecast
  • India vs. China: Growth in hot metal production
  • Global iron ore exports by country
  • Global iron ore exports by company
  • Seaborne import growth of iron ore: China vs. RoW
  • Iron ore long run supply/demand balance
  • Indian trade in iron ore: transition from exporter to importer
  • Chinese iron ore reserve by province
  • Chinese mined iron ore production
  • Supply: Image 6
  • Contestable market vs. non-contestable market
  • Chinese iron ore production by region
  • China domestic iron ore cost curve, Q1 2015
  • Iron ore exports: Brazil vs. Australia
  • Share of global exports: Brazil vs. Australia
  • Canadian iron ore operations
  • Brazil's southern system
  • The Guinea/ Sierra Leone/ Liberia hub
  • Australia's Pilbara region


  • Iron ore price forecast: fines (62% Fe), US$/dmt
  • Key demand forecast data
  • China: iron ore consumption, imports and supply
  • Incentive price analysis for selected greenfield projects
  • Asia (ex-China): key demand forecast data
  • Europe: key demand forecast data
  • CIS: key demand forecast data
  • Demand: Table 6
  • South America: key demand forecast data
  • Middle East: key demand forecast data
  • Iron ore production and exports by major country
  • Iron ore exports by key company

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