Commodity market report
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58 Pages

Global iron ore long-term outlook Q1 2015

Global iron ore long-term outlook Q1 2015

Report summary

Having already fallen by 50% in 2014, spot iron ore prices have dropped by almost 30% so far this year. We have lowered our price forecast for the period 2015-20 by an average of 17% to $69/t CFR (real 2015 terms). Our long term price forecast has been reduced to $80/t CFR (real 2015 terms) effective from 2020, to reflect the narrower long run "supply gap" and an approximate 15% fall in capital costs for new mine/infrastructure developments since our last assessment of project incentive prices.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Global iron ore long-term outlook Q1 2015 PDF - 3.07 MB 58 Pages, 12 Tables, 33 Figures
  • IOMS LT Datafile Q1 2015.xls XLS - 952.50 KB


As global demand weakens and commodity prices fall, we're seeing a challenging environment in the metals and mining industry. Mining companies are increasingly coming under pressure to reduce operating costs, causing many to shift their strategic planning, delay new investments and look to long-term future growth.

This Iron Ore Long Term Outlook report provides a detailed breakdown of global supply and demand balances in this market, as well as price forecasts.

Mining companies, investment banks and investors can use this report to understand the future direction of the ferrous and base metals market. It will also help you assess the impact of key industry issues and events on market balances and pricing.

From acquisitions to investments, Wood Mackenzie helps you plan, forecast and benchmark in the metals markets. Our proprietary database and analyst expertise combines robust production, consumption and pricing data with detailed analysis to identify market opportunities.

We give you a holistic view of the ferrous and base metals markets so you have the confidence to make strategic decisions.

  • Executive summary
    • Demand summary
    • Supply summary
    • Price summary
  • Demand
    • Global Overview
    • Asia
      • China
      • Steel and hot metal outlook
        • Lump demand
        • Sinter and sinter fines demand
        • Pellet and pellet feed demand
        • Japan
        • South Korea
        • Taiwan
        • India
        • Other Asia
        • Europe
        • CIS
        • North America
        • South America
        • Middle East
        • Africa/Oceania
  • Supply
    • Overview
      • Key changes to our export forecast
        • Australia
        • South America
        • Asia
        • Middle East
        • North America
        • Europe
        • CIS
        • Asia
          • India
          • China
            • Summary
            • Resources and production
            • Contestable and non-contestable markets
            • Cost cutting is under way but on a limited scale
            • Other Asia
            • Europe
              • Sweden
              • Norway
            • CIS
              • Russian Federation
              • Ukraine
              • Kazakhstan
            • North America
              • Canada
              • United States
              • Mexico
            • South America
              • Brazil
                • Vale
                • Other Brazilian Producers
                • Other South America
                • Africa
                  • South Africa
                  • Mauritania
                  • West Africa (excluding Mauritania)
                • Australia
                  • Overview
                  • Key changes to our supply forecast for Australia
                • Middle East
  • Supply-demand balances
    • What’s changed?
    • The Medium Term Outlook to 2020
      • Market Balance and Price Outlook
      • Displacement of Chinese domestic supply
    • Lump Premia
    • Past Trends in Lump Premia
      • Future Trends in Lump Premia
    • Pellet Premia
      • Past Trends in Pellet Premia
      • Future Trends in Pellet Premia
    • The Long Term Outlook (post 2020)
      • Overview
      • The long run price for iron ore
        • The long run supply/demand balance
      • Long run marginal cost
      • Long run incentive price

In this report there are 45 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Iron ore market balance and price forecast
    • Iron ore price forecast: fines (62% Fe), US$/dmt
  • Demand
    • Key demand forecast data
    • Global consumption of iron ore by product
    • Growth in iron ore consumption and imports
    • China: iron ore consumption, imports and supply
    • Chinese steel demand by end-use sector in 2014 (%)
    • Hot metal production vs. scrap supply
    • Burden mix in blast furnaces
    • China iron ore demand, supply and imports
    • Asia (ex-China): key demand forecast data
    • Indian crude steel production: history and forecast
    • India vs. China: Growth in hot metal production
    • Europe: key demand forecast data
    • CIS: key demand forecast data
    • Demand: Table 6
    • South America: key demand forecast data
    • Middle East: key demand forecast data
  • Supply
    • Global iron ore exports by country
    • Global iron ore exports by company
    • Iron ore production and exports by major country
    • Iron ore exports by key company
    • Indian trade in iron ore: transition from exporter to importer
    • Chinese iron ore reserve by province
    • Chinese mined iron ore production
    • Supply: Image 6
    • Contestable market vs. non-contestable market
    • Chinese iron ore production by region
    • China domestic iron ore cost curve, Q1 2015
    • Canadian iron ore operations
    • Iron ore exports: Brazil vs. Australia
    • Share of global exports: Brazil vs. Australia
    • Brazil's southern system
    • The Guinea/ Sierra Leone/ Liberia hub
    • Australia's Pilbara region
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Iron ore price forecast: sinter fines, FOB Australia
    • Iron ore trade balance (Mt)
    • Trade balance (as % of global imports)
    • Iron ore lump premia
    • Iron ore pellet premia
    • Seaborne import growth of iron ore: China vs. RoW
    • Iron ore long run supply/demand balance
    • Global cash cost curve: US$/dmt, CFR China, 62% Fe equivalent, basis Q4-14.
    • Incentive price analysis for selected greenfield projects
    • Incentive price analysis for selected projects
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