Commodity Market Report

Global iron ore long-term outlook Q1 2016

Get this report


You can pay by card or invoice

Contact us

Submit your details to receive further information about this report.

For details on how your data is used and stored, see our Privacy Notice.

- Available as part of a subscription
- FAQ's about online orders

31 March 2016

Global iron ore long-term outlook Q1 2016

Report summary

The Global Iron Ore Market Long-term Outlook provides the latest update of detailed supply and demand analysis and price forecasts for the iron ore market to 2035. We have a more negative outlook for iron ore than we presented in our Q4-15 update, mainly due to a further downward revision to Chinese steel consumption. We have lowered our average price forecast for the period 2017-21 by approximately 6% with the low point of the cycle expected to occur in 2018 with an annual average price of $45/t CFR (real 2016 terms). Our long term price remains at $70/t CFR (real 2016 terms) but a return to that level is unlikely for at least 10-15 years as there is no requirement to incentivise additional supply prior to 2030.

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Key changes to demand outlook
  • Key changes to supply outlook
    • Iron ore price forecast: fines (62% Fe), US$/dmt
  • Demand
    • Key demand forecast data
    • China
      • Steel and hot metal outlook
      • Iron ore demand outlook
    • Japan
    • South Korea
    • Taiwan
    • India
    • Other Asia
  • Europe
  • CIS
  • North America
  • South America
  • Middle East
  • Africa/Oceania
  • Supply
    • Medium term view
    • Long term view
    • Key changes to global export forecast
      • Australia
      • Brazil
      • Asia
      • Middle East
      • North America
      • Africa
      • CIS
      • Asia
        • Resources and production
      • Other Asia
      • Europe
        • Sweden
        • Norway
      • CIS
        • Russian Federation
        • Ukraine
        • Kazakhstan
      • North America
        • Canada
        • United States
        • Mexico
      • South America
        • Brazil
          • Vale
          • Other Brazilian Producers
          • Other South America
          • Africa
            • South Africa
            • Mauritania
            • West Africa (excluding Mauritania)
          • Australia
            • Overview
            • Key changes to our supply forecast for Australia
          • Middle East
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Short term outlook (revised up):
    • Medium term outlook (revised down):
    • Long term outlook (no change – but risk on timing):
      • Iron ore price forecast: sinter fines, FOB Australia
      • The medium-term outlook to 2020
        • What's changed?
          • Key factors influencing for the medium term price outlook include the following:
        • China delivered cost curve and breakeven analysis
        • Price outlook for lump
          • Past trends in lump premia
          • Future trends in lump premia
            • Iron ore lump premia
            • Price outlook for pellets
              • Past trends in pellet premia
              • Future tends in pellet premia
              • The long-term outlook (post 2025)
                • Overview
                • Long run trade balance
                • Long run incentive price

Tables and charts

This report includes 32 images and tables including:

  • Europe: key demand forecast data
  • CIS: key demand forecast data
  • North America: key demand forecast data
  • South America: key demand forecast data
  • Middle East: key demand forecast data
  • Executive summary: Table 1
  • Demand: Table 1
  • Global consumption of iron ore by product
  • Growth in iron ore consumption and imports
  • Chinese crude steel production (Mt)
  • China: iron ore consumption, imports and supply
  • Hot metal vs. scrap supply
  • Burden mix in blast furnaces
  • Chinese iron ore demand, supply and imports
  • Asia (ex-China): key demand forecast data
  • Iron ore production and exports by major country
  • Iron ore exports by key company
  • Iron Ore Exports: Brazil vs. Australia
  • Share of Global Exports: Brazil vs. Australia
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 1
  • Chinese iron ore reserve by province
  • Chinese mined iron ore production
  • Supply: Image 3
  • Cost curve - Chinese imports of sinter fines 2016, US$/t CFR China, 62% Fe
  • Company breakeven costs (62% Fe fines delivered to China)
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 4
  • Iron ore pellet premia
  • Growth in iron ore consumption, China vs. India
  • Iron ore trade balance and price forecast
  • Iron ore long run supply/demand balance
  • Incentive price analysis for selected projects
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 1

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    IOMS LT Datafile Q1 2016.xls

    XLS 979.00 KB

  • Document

    Global iron ore long-term outlook Q1 2016

    PDF 752.48 KB

  • Document

    Global iron ore long-term outlook Q1 2016

    ZIP 1.02 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 87.60 KB

  • Document


    PDF 258.83 KB

  • Document


    PDF 272.37 KB

  • Document

    Supply-demand balances

    PDF 239.67 KB

Trusted by leading organisations