Commodity market report

Global iron ore long-term outlook Q1 2016

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Report summary

The Global Iron Ore Market Long term Outlook provides the latest update of detailed supply and demand analysis and price forecasts for the iron ore market to 2035. We have a more negative outlook for iron ore than we presented in our Q4 15 update mainly due to a further downward revision to Chinese steel consumption. We have lowered our average price forecast for the period 2017 21 by approximately 6% with the low point of the cycle expected to occur in 2018 with an annual average price of $45/t CFR (real 2016 terms). Our long term price remains at $70/t CFR (real 2016 terms) but a return to that level is unlikely for at least 10 15 years as there is no requirement to incentivise additional supply prior to 2030.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    IOMS LT Datafile Q1 2016.xls

    XLS 979.00 KB

  • Document

    Global iron ore long-term outlook Q1 2016

    PDF 752.48 KB

  • Document

    Global iron ore long-term outlook Q1 2016

    ZIP 1.02 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 87.60 KB

  • Document

    Demand

    PDF 258.83 KB

  • Document

    Supply

    PDF 272.37 KB

  • Document

    Supply-demand balances

    PDF 239.67 KB

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Demand
  • Supply
  • Supply-demand balances

Tables and charts

This report includes 32 images and tables including:

Images

  • Global consumption of iron ore by product
  • Growth in iron ore consumption and imports
  • Chinese crude steel production (Mt)
  • Hot metal vs. scrap supply
  • Burden mix in blast furnaces
  • Chinese iron ore demand, supply and imports
  • Iron Ore Exports: Brazil vs. Australia
  • Share of Global Exports: Brazil vs. Australia
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 1
  • Chinese iron ore reserve by province
  • Chinese mined iron ore production
  • Supply: Image 3
  • Cost curve - Chinese imports of sinter fines 2016, US$/t CFR China, 62% Fe
  • Company breakeven costs (62% Fe fines delivered to China)
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 4
  • Iron ore pellet premia
  • Growth in iron ore consumption, China vs. India
  • Iron ore trade balance and price forecast
  • Iron ore long run supply/demand balance
  • Incentive price analysis for selected projects

Tables

  • Europe: key demand forecast data
  • CIS: key demand forecast data
  • North America: key demand forecast data
  • South America: key demand forecast data
  • Middle East: key demand forecast data
  • Executive summary: Table 1
  • Demand: Table 1
  • China: iron ore consumption, imports and supply
  • Asia (ex-China): key demand forecast data
  • Iron ore production and exports by major country
  • Iron ore exports by key company
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 1

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