Commodity market report

Global iron ore long-term outlook Q1 2016

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Report summary

The Global Iron Ore Market Long-term Outlook provides the latest update of detailed supply and demand analysis and price forecasts for the iron ore market to 2035. We have a more negative outlook for iron ore than we presented in our Q4-15 update, mainly due to a further downward revision to Chinese steel consumption. We have lowered our average price forecast for the period 2017-21 by approximately 6% with the low point of the cycle expected to occur in 2018 with an annual average price of $45/t CFR (real 2016 terms). Our long term price remains at $70/t CFR (real 2016 terms) but a return to that level is unlikely for at least 10-15 years as there is no requirement to incentivise additional supply prior to 2030.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    IOMS LT Datafile Q1 2016.xls

    XLS 979.00 KB

  • Document

    Global iron ore long-term outlook Q1 2016

    PDF 752.48 KB

  • Document

    Global iron ore long-term outlook Q1 2016

    ZIP 1.02 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 87.60 KB

  • Document


    PDF 258.83 KB

  • Document


    PDF 272.37 KB

  • Document

    Supply-demand balances

    PDF 239.67 KB

Table of contents

Tables and charts

This report includes 32 images and tables including:


  • Global consumption of iron ore by product
  • Growth in iron ore consumption and imports
  • Chinese crude steel production (Mt)
  • Hot metal vs. scrap supply
  • Burden mix in blast furnaces
  • Chinese iron ore demand, supply and imports
  • Iron Ore Exports: Brazil vs. Australia
  • Share of Global Exports: Brazil vs. Australia
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 1
  • Chinese iron ore reserve by province
  • Chinese mined iron ore production
  • Supply: Image 3
  • Cost curve - Chinese imports of sinter fines 2016, US$/t CFR China, 62% Fe
  • Company breakeven costs (62% Fe fines delivered to China)
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 4
  • Iron ore pellet premia
  • Growth in iron ore consumption, China vs. India
  • Iron ore trade balance and price forecast
  • Iron ore long run supply/demand balance
  • Incentive price analysis for selected projects


  • Europe: key demand forecast data
  • CIS: key demand forecast data
  • North America: key demand forecast data
  • South America: key demand forecast data
  • Middle East: key demand forecast data
  • Executive summary: Table 1
  • Demand: Table 1
  • China: iron ore consumption, imports and supply
  • Asia (ex-China): key demand forecast data
  • Iron ore production and exports by major country
  • Iron ore exports by key company
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 1

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