The Global Iron Ore Market Long-term Outlook provides detailed supply and demand analysis and price forecasts for the iron ore market to 2035. Having averaged $86/t in Q1 our CY17 forecast of $68/t CFR implies an average price of $62/t for the rest of the year. Our view is that the disconnect between iron ore prices and costs is unsustainable and the inevitable margin compression is more likely to come from falling prices than rising costs. We think 2018 will mark the low point of the iron ore cycle with prices averaging $52/t in real terms. Prices need to fall to the low-$50/t range and remain there for several months to force out excess high cost supply. From 2019/20 a gradual price recovery is expected as a more concentrated industry structure leads to enhanced pricing power and positive "cost push". Incentive price analysis indicates long run price support around $60/t CFR (real 2017 terms) effective from 2025.
Why buy this report?
This commodity market report contains demand and supply overviews and a breakdown of exports by country to help you understand what is happening in the iron ore industry.
Discover why there is a disconnect between prices and cost and why a two tier market has evolved
Find out which "swing factors" could significantly alter our long-term view on iron ore
This report offers:
Key demand forecast data
Supply-demand balances, including detailed short term, medium term and long term outlooks