Commodity Market Report

Global iron ore long-term outlook Q1 2018

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Report summary

The Global Iron Ore Market Long-term Outlook provides detailed supply and demand analysis and price forecasts for the iron ore market to 2040. The iron ore market is entering a cyclical downturn with the low point occurring in 2019 (price forecast: $62/t CFR). Breakeven analysis suggests a medium term "floor price" of $50-55/t CFR but we peg our forecast above this level to reflect a committed approach to supply side discipline and value maximisation over growth. Margin compression is inevitable but the transition towards a quality based multi-tiered pricing structure means that suppliers of high grade sinter fines and concentrates will fare relatively well, while suppliers of low grade sinter fines will need to continue offering heavy discounts.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Global iron ore markets long-term outlook data 2018 Q1.xls

    XLS 1.16 MB

  • Document

    Global iron ore long-term outlook Q1 2018

    PDF 1.15 MB

  • Document

    Global iron ore long-term outlook Q1 2018

    ZIP 1.39 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 97.99 KB

  • Document

    Demand

    PDF 238.47 KB

  • Document

    Supply

    PDF 254.10 KB

  • Document

    Supply-demand balances

    PDF 722.42 KB

Table of contents

Tables and charts

This report includes 48 images and tables including:

Tables

  • Europe: key demand forecast data
  • North America: key demand forecast data
  • South America: key demand forecast data
  • Middle East: key demand forecast data
  • Key demand forecast data
  • Demand: Table 2
  • CIS: key demand forecast data
  • Asia (ex-China): key demand forecast data
  • Iron ore production and exports by major country
  • Iron ore exports by key company
  • Asian exports of iron ore by country (Mt)
  • Iron ore price forecast: fines (62% Fe), US$/dmt
  • Incentive price analysis – selected projects

Images

  • Global consumption of iron ore by product
  • Growth in iron ore consumption and imports
  • Indian net-imports of seaborne iron ore will grow - but not until the late 2020s
  • India will never replace China as the source of global seaborne iron ore growth.
  • It will take until the late 2020's until India begins to compensate for the decline in Chinese seaborne iron ore imports.
  • Japanese steelmakers are increasing the use of pellet in the burden mix...
  • ...as evidenced by a spike in imports.
  • US seaborne imports of iron ore will rise this year
  • The BoF route will remain dominant in China
  • Hot metal's share of metallic mix dips below 80% post-2030
  • Iron ore demand falls post-2020 on lower hot metal output
  • Pellet demand will outperform in long term
  • Demand: Image 7
  • Iron ore exports by country
  • Iron ore exports by company
  • Iron Ore Exports: Brazil versus Australia
  • Share of Global Exports: Brazil versus Australia
  • Iron ore price forecast: sinter fines, FOB Australia
  • Iron ore price forecast: sinter fines, CFR China
  • Iron ore price vs cost of production
  • CFR China cost vs iron ore price
  • Prices need to remain low enough to discourage Chinese restarts and/or Indian exports.
  • Point of intersection - 2017 $72/t, 2020 $56/t
  • China's rising iron ore import dependency
  • Chinese ore production: long term forecast
  • Goan ore – a smaller share of a smaller pie.
  • India is now a relatively insignificant supplier to China.
  • Iron ore price and price differentials
  • Composition of seaborne supply
  • Iron ore lump price
  • B/F pellet price
  • Global seaborne trade in iron ore
  • Iron ore trade balance and price forecast
  • long run supply "gap" analysis
  • Incentive price analysis – selected projects only

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