Commodity market report

Global iron ore long-term outlook Q2 2016

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Iron ore prices surprised on the upside in Q2 16 but the spike to $70/t was built on fragile foundations and quickly passed. Our price forecast for H2 16 is $49/t CFR marginally below the H1 16 price of $51/t CFR.In a market that is effectively ex growth for the next 3 5 years prices will have to fall in order to force out more high cost seaborne supply and/or Chinese domestic supply. We believe the low point of the current cycle will occur in 2018 with an annual average price of $43/t CFR (real 2016 terms). There is a growing risk that a global downturn could lead to a lower and more protracted price floor.

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