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Global iron ore long-term outlook Q2 2016

Global iron ore long-term outlook Q2 2016

Report summary

Iron ore prices surprised on the upside in Q2-16 but the spike to $70/t was built on fragile foundations and quickly passed. Our price forecast for H2-16 is $49/t CFR, marginally below the H1-16 price of $51/t CFR. In a market that is effectively ex-growth for the next 3-5 years, prices will have to fall in order to force out more high cost seaborne supply and/or Chinese domestic supply. We believe the low point of the current cycle will occur in 2018 with an annual average price of $43/t CFR (real 2016 terms). There is a growing risk that a global downturn could lead to a lower and more protracted price floor.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Global iron ore long-term outlook Q2 2016.pdf PDF - 999.79 KB
  • IOMS LT Datafile Q2 2016.xls XLS - 1.03 MB


As global demand weakens and commodity prices fall, we're seeing a challenging environment in the metals and mining industry. Mining companies are increasingly coming under pressure to reduce operating costs, causing many to shift their strategic planning, delay new investments and look to long-term future growth.

This Iron Ore Long Term Outlook report provides a detailed breakdown of global supply and demand balances in this market, as well as price forecasts.

Mining companies, investment banks and investors can use this report to understand the future direction of the ferrous and base metals market. It will also help you assess the impact of key industry issues and events on market balances and pricing.

From acquisitions to investments, Wood Mackenzie helps you plan, forecast and benchmark in the metals markets. Our proprietary database and analyst expertise combines robust production, consumption and pricing data with detailed analysis to identify market opportunities.

We give you a holistic view of the ferrous and base metals markets so you have the confidence to make strategic decisions.

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