The net result of Q2-18 supply/demand revisions is a tighter seaborne market in 2018 than previously thought. We see a significant risk of this year's tightness flowing through to 2019. From 2020 onwards the reverse is true; upward adjustments to supply forecasts exceed those to demand and the implied seaborne balance is less tight than previously thought. We have raised our price forecast for 2018/19 by an average of 5%: 2018 = $67/t (was $66/t); 2019 = $66/t (was $62/t). Changes to price forecasts post-2020 are negligible.