Commodity market report
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57 Pages

Global iron ore long-term outlook Q3 2014

Global iron ore long-term outlook Q3 2014

Report summary

The market’s transition to oversupply is not new news but the price response has been more severe than expected with prices having fallen by 40% since the start of 2014. We have lowered our price forecast for 2014-20 by an average of 5% to $90/t CFR (real 2014 terms). We believe that 2016 will mark the low point of the cycle, with prices falling to an annual average of $84/t CFR. Our long term price forecast remains unchanged at $100/t CFR but prices will not reach this level until post 2020.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Global iron ore long-term outlook Q3 2014 PDF - 3.14 MB 57 Pages, 13 Tables, 28 Figures
  • IOMS LT Datafile Q3 2014 V2.xls XLS - 1010.50 KB


As global demand weakens and commodity prices fall, we're seeing a challenging environment in the metals and mining industry. Mining companies are increasingly coming under pressure to reduce operating costs, causing many to shift their strategic planning, delay new investments and look to long-term future growth.

This Iron Ore Long Term Outlook report provides a detailed breakdown of global supply and demand balances in this market, as well as price forecasts.

Mining companies, investment banks and investors can use this report to understand the future direction of the ferrous and base metals market. It will also help you assess the impact of key industry issues and events on market balances and pricing.

From acquisitions to investments, Wood Mackenzie helps you plan, forecast and benchmark in the metals markets. Our proprietary database and analyst expertise combines robust production, consumption and pricing data with detailed analysis to identify market opportunities.

We give you a holistic view of the ferrous and base metals markets so you have the confidence to make strategic decisions.

  • Executive summary
    • Demand summary
    • Supply summary
    • Price summary
      • Iron ore price forecast: fines (62% Fe), US$/dmt
  • Demand
  • Global Overview
    • China
      • China: iron ore consumption, imports and supply
      • Weak steel demand to undermine the steel production in the medium term
      • China iron ore demand, supply and imports
      • Lump demand
      • Sinter and sinter fines demand
      • Pellet and pellet feed demand
    • Japan
    • South Korea
    • Taiwan
    • India
    • Other Asia
  • Europe
    • Europe: key demand forecast data
  • CIS
    • CIS: key demand forecast data
  • North America
    • North America: key demand forecast data
  • South America
    • South America: key demand forecast data
  • Middle East
    • Middle East: key demand forecast data
  • Africa/Oceania
  • Supply
  • What’s changed?
    • Iron ore exports by key company
  • Asia
    • India
      • Summary
      • Displacement has finally begun
      • SOE mine production remains firm
      • Small private mines have taken the biggest hit
      • A big cost cut is unlikely
      • RMB/USD exchange rate is another risk
    • Other Asia
  • Europe
  • CIS
    • Russian Federation
    • Ukraine
    • Kazakhstan
  • North America
    • Canada
    • United States
    • Mexico
  • South America
    • Brazil
      • Vale
      • Other Brazilian Producers
    • Other South America
  • Africa
    • South Africa
    • Mauritania
    • West Africa (excluding Mauritania)
  • Australia
    • Overview
    • Key changes to our supply forecast for Australia
    • Rio Tinto
    • BHP Billiton
    • FMG
    • Australian non-majors
  • Middle East
  • Supply-demand balances
  • What’s changed?
    • Iron ore price forecast: sinter fines, FOB Australia
  • The Medium Term Outlook to 2020
    • Market Balance and Price Outlook
    • Displacement of Chinese domestic supply
    • Lump Premia
      • Past Trends in Lump Premia
      • Future Trends in Lump Premia
    • Pellet Premia
      • Past Trends in Pellet Premia
      • Future Trends in Pellet Premia
      • The Long Term Outlook (post 2020)
        • Overview
        • The long run price for iron ore
          • The long run supply/demand balance
          • Long run marginal cost
          • Long run incentive price

In this report there are 41 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Iron ore market balance and price forecast
    • Executive summary: Table 1
  • Demand
  • Global Overview
    • Demand: Table 1
    • Global consumption of iron ore by product
    • Growth in iron ore consumption and imports
    • Demand: Table 2
    • Steel production to peak in 2029 at just below 1bn t
    • Hot metal to peak in 2023
    • Input ore grade and burden mix in blast furnaces
    • Hot metal cost vs. scrap price in 2014 (indices)
    • Demand: Image 7
    • Asia (ex-China): key demand forecast data
    • Indian crude steel production: history and forecast
    • India vs. China: Growth in hot metal production
  • Europe
    • Demand: Table 4
  • CIS
    • Demand: Table 5
  • North America
    • Demand: Table 6
  • South America
    • Demand: Table 7
  • Middle East
    • Demand: Table 8
  • Africa/Oceania
  • Supply
  • What’s changed?
    • Supply: Table 1
    • Supply: Table 2
  • Asia
    • Indian exports of iron ore: annual
    • Indian exports of iron ore: monthly
    • Supply: Image 3
    • Full China iron ore cost curve 2013 ($/dmt @marketable grade)
  • Europe
  • CIS
  • North America
    • Canadian iron ore operations
  • South America
    • Iron ore exports: Brazil vs. Australia
    • Share of global exports: Brazil vs. Australia
    • Brazil's southern system
  • Africa
    • The Guinea/ Sierra Leone/ Liberia hub
  • Australia
    • Australia's Pilbara region
  • Middle East
  • Supply-demand balances
  • What’s changed?
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 1
  • The Medium Term Outlook to 2020
    • Iron ore trade balance (Mt)
    • Trade balance (as % of global imports)
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 1
    • Iron ore lump premia
    • Iron ore pellet premia
    • Iron ore long run supply/demand balance
    • Global cash cost curve: US$/dmt, CFR China, 62% Fe equivalent, basis Q3-14.
    • Incentive price analysis for selected greenfield projects
    • Incentive price analysis for selected projects
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