Commodity market report

Global iron ore long-term outlook Q3 2014

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Report summary

The market’s transition to oversupply is not new news but the price response has been more severe than expected with prices having fallen by 40% since the start of 2014. We have lowered our price forecast for 2014-20 by an average of 5% to $90/t CFR (real 2014 terms). We believe that 2016 will mark the low point of the cycle, with prices falling to an annual average of $84/t CFR. Our long term price forecast remains unchanged at $100/t CFR but prices will not reach this level until post 2020.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Global iron ore long-term outlook Q3 2014

    PDF 3.14 MB

  • Document

    Global iron ore long-term outlook Q3 2014

    ZIP 3.10 MB

  • Document

    IOMS LT Datafile Q3 2014 V2.xls

    XLS 1010.50 KB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 98.87 KB

  • Document

    Demand

    PDF 202.04 KB

  • Document

    Supply

    PDF 2.69 MB

  • Document

    Supply-demand balances

    PDF 228.04 KB

Table of contents

    • Demand summary
    • Supply summary
      • Iron ore price forecast: fines (62% Fe), US$/dmt
  • Demand
      • China: iron ore consumption, imports and supply
      • Weak steel demand to undermine the steel production in the medium term
      • China iron ore demand, supply and imports
      • Lump demand
      • Sinter and sinter fines demand
      • Pellet and pellet feed demand
    • Japan
    • South Korea
    • Taiwan
    • India
    • Other Asia
    • Europe: key demand forecast data
    • CIS: key demand forecast data
    • North America: key demand forecast data
    • South America: key demand forecast data
    • Middle East: key demand forecast data
  • Africa/Oceania
  • Supply
    • Iron ore exports by key company
      • Summary
      • Displacement has finally begun
      • SOE mine production remains firm
      • Small private mines have taken the biggest hit
      • A big cost cut is unlikely
      • RMB/USD exchange rate is another risk
    • Other Asia
  • Europe
    • Russian Federation
    • Ukraine
    • Kazakhstan
    • Canada
    • United States
    • Mexico
      • Vale
      • Other Brazilian Producers
    • Other South America
    • South Africa
    • Mauritania
    • West Africa (excluding Mauritania)
    • Overview
    • Key changes to our supply forecast for Australia
    • Rio Tinto
    • BHP Billiton
    • FMG
    • Australian non-majors
  • Middle East
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Iron ore price forecast: sinter fines, FOB Australia

Tables and charts

This report includes 41 images and tables including:

Images

  • Iron ore market balance and price forecast
  • Global consumption of iron ore by product
  • Growth in iron ore consumption and imports
  • Iron ore exports: Brazil vs. Australia
  • Share of global exports: Brazil vs. Australia
  • Indian crude steel production: history and forecast
  • India vs. China: Growth in hot metal production
  • Indian exports of iron ore: annual
  • Indian exports of iron ore: monthly
  • Canadian iron ore operations
  • The Guinea/ Sierra Leone/ Liberia hub
  • Australia's Pilbara region
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 1
  • Iron ore trade balance (Mt)
  • Trade balance (as % of global imports)
  • Steel production to peak in 2029 at just below 1bn t
  • Hot metal to peak in 2023
  • Input ore grade and burden mix in blast furnaces
  • Hot metal cost vs. scrap price in 2014 (indices)
  • Demand: Image 7
  • Supply: Image 3
  • Full China iron ore cost curve 2013 ($/dmt @marketable grade)
  • Brazil's southern system
  • Iron ore lump premia
  • Iron ore pellet premia
  • Iron ore long run supply/demand balance
  • Global cash cost curve: US$/dmt, CFR China, 62% Fe equivalent, basis Q3-14.
  • Incentive price analysis for selected projects

Tables

  • Demand: Table 1
  • Supply: Table 1
  • Demand: Table 4
  • Demand: Table 5
  • Demand: Table 6
  • Demand: Table 7
  • Demand: Table 8
  • Supply: Table 2
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 1
  • Executive summary: Table 1
  • Demand: Table 2
  • Asia (ex-China): key demand forecast data
  • Incentive price analysis for selected greenfield projects

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