Commodity market report
| |
47 Pages

Global iron ore long-term outlook Q3 2015


Global iron ore long-term outlook Q3 2015

Report summary

The Global Iron Ore Market Long-term Outlook provides the latest update of detailed supply and demand analysis and price forecasts for the iron ore market out to 2035. Iron ore's transition to structural oversupply is now well known and widely accepted but opinion varies significantly over the scale and timing of peak steel in China, giving markedly different interpretations of the demand and price outlook for iron ore. We now have a more negative outlook for iron ore than we presented in our Q2-15 update. The key change is a significant downward revision to Chinese steel consumption. We have lowered our average price forecast for the period 2016-20 by approximately 20% with the low point of the cycle now expected to be 2018. Our long term price is $80/t CFR (real 2015 terms) but a return to that level is unlikely for at least 15 years as there is no requirement to incentivise additional supply prior to 2030.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Global iron ore long-term outlook Q3 2015 PDF - 732.57 KB 47 Pages, 12 Tables, 21 Figures
  • IOMS LT Datafile Q3 2015.xls XLS - 958.50 KB

Description

As global demand weakens and commodity prices fall, we're seeing a challenging environment in the metals and mining industry. Mining companies are increasingly coming under pressure to reduce operating costs, causing many to shift their strategic planning, delay new investments and look to long-term future growth.

This Iron Ore Long Term Outlook report provides a detailed breakdown of global supply and demand balances in this market, as well as price forecasts.

Mining companies, investment banks and investors can use this report to understand the future direction of the ferrous and base metals market. It will also help you assess the impact of key industry issues and events on market balances and pricing.

From acquisitions to investments, Wood Mackenzie helps you plan, forecast and benchmark in the metals markets. Our proprietary database and analyst expertise combines robust production, consumption and pricing data with detailed analysis to identify market opportunities.

We give you a holistic view of the ferrous and base metals markets so you have the confidence to make strategic decisions.

  • Executive summary
    • Iron ore price forecast: fines (62% Fe), US$/dmt
  • Demand
  • Global Overview
    • China
      • China: iron ore consumption, imports and supply
      • Lump demand
      • Sinter and sinter fines demand
      • Pellet and pellet feed demand
      • China iron ore demand, supply and imports
    • Japan
    • South Korea
    • Taiwan
    • India
    • Other Asia
  • Europe
    • Europe: key demand forecast data
  • CIS
    • CIS: key demand forecast data
  • North America
    • North America: key demand forecast data
  • South America
    • South America: key demand forecast data
  • Middle East
    • Middle East: key demand forecast data
  • Africa/Oceania
  • Supply
  • Overview
    • Key changes to our export forecast
      • Australia
      • South America
      • Asia
      • Middle East
      • North America
      • Europe
      • CIS
      • Iron ore exports by key company
      • Asia
        • India
        • China
          • Summary
          • Resources and production
          • Contestable and non-contestable markets
        • Other Asia
      • Europe
        • Sweden
        • Norway
      • CIS
        • Russian Federation
        • Ukraine
        • Kazakhstan
      • North America
        • Canada
        • United States
        • Mexico
      • South America
        • Brazil
          • Vale
          • Other Brazilian Producers
        • Other South America
      • Africa
        • South Africa
        • Mauritania
        • West Africa (excluding Mauritania)
      • Australia
        • Overview
        • Key changes to our supply forecast for Australia
      • Middle East
  • Supply-demand balances
  • Overview
    • Iron ore price forecast: sinter fines, FOB Australia
  • The Medium Term Outlook to 2020
    • What's changed?
    • Sinter fines price outlook: a closer look at the delivered China cost curve
    • Price outlook for lump
      • Past trends in lump premia
      • Iron ore lump premia
      • Future trends in lump premia
    • Price outlook for pellets
      • Past trends in pellet premia
      • Future tends in pellet premia
      • The Long Term Outlook (post 2020)
        • Overview
        • Long run trade balance
        • Long run incentive price
          • Incentive price analysis for selected projects

In this report there are 33 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Executive summary: Table 1
  • Demand
  • Global Overview
    • Key demand forecast data
    • Global consumption of iron ore by product
    • Growth in iron ore consumption and imports
    • Demand: Table 2
    • Hot metal production vs. scrap supply
    • Burden mix in blast furnaces
    • Demand: Image 5
    • Asia (ex-China): key demand forecast data
    • Indian crude steel production: history and forecast
    • India vs. China: Growth in hot metal production
  • Europe
    • Demand: Table 4
  • CIS
    • Demand: Table 5
  • North America
    • Demand: Table 6
  • South America
    • Demand: Table 7
  • Middle East
    • Demand: Table 8
  • Africa/Oceania
  • Supply
  • Overview
    • Iron ore production and exports by major country
    • Supply: Table 2
    • Indian trade in iron ore: transition from exporter to importer
    • Chinese iron ore reserve by province
    • Chinese mined iron ore production
    • Supply: Image 4
    • Iron ore exports: Brazil vs. Australia
    • Share of global exports: Brazil vs. Australia
    • Australia's Pilbara region
  • Supply-demand balances
  • Overview
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 1
  • The Medium Term Outlook to 2020
    • Cost curve - Chinese imports of sinter fines, US$/t CFR China, 62% Fe
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 3
    • Iron ore pellet premia
    • Iron ore trade balance and price forecast
    • Long run supply/demand balance
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 7
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 1
Requester's name : .............
Department : .............
Authoriser's Name : .............
Authoriser's signature : .............
Date : .............
Cost Centre : .............

Questions about this report?

Frequently Asked Questions

Mailenquiries@woodmac.com
  • Europe: +44 131 243 4699
  • Americas: +1 713 470 1900
  • Asia Pacific: +61 2 8224 8898
contact us

Why Wood Mackenzie?

Wood Mackenzie, a Verisk Analytics business, has been a trusted source of commercial intelligence for the world's natural resources sector for more than 40 years, empowering clients to make better strategic decisions with objective analysis and advice.

We work across every sector of oil, gas, power, renewables, chemicals, metals and mining, covering more than 150 countries. Our proprietary data and models are at the core of everything we do, ensuring our independent asset and company valuations are thoroughly robust and that we offer an accurate forward-looking view of economic indicators such as market supply, demand and price trends.

Our 500+ analysts are based in the regions they cover, cultivating an unrivalled depth of understanding to help clients accurately identify new opportunities, define their strategy and improve business performance.

At every stage, our teams readily collaborate and share their insight to provide an integrated perspective across entire industries. It is this unique and rigorous analytical approach that ensures we are recognised as the industry standard by the world’s most innovative organisations.