Commodity market report

Global iron ore long-term outlook Q3 2015

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Report summary

The Global Iron Ore Market Long-term Outlook provides the latest update of detailed supply and demand analysis and price forecasts for the iron ore market out to 2035. Iron ore's transition to structural oversupply is now well known and widely accepted but opinion varies significantly over the scale and timing of peak steel in China, giving markedly different interpretations of the demand and price outlook for iron ore. We now have a more negative outlook for iron ore than we presented in our Q2-15 update. The key change is a significant downward revision to Chinese steel consumption. We have lowered our average price forecast for the period 2016-20 by approximately 20% with the low point of the cycle now expected to be 2018. Our long term price is $80/t CFR (real 2015 terms) but a return to that level is unlikely for at least 15 years as there is no requirement to incentivise additional supply prior to 2030.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    IOMS LT Datafile Q3 2015.xls

    XLS 958.50 KB

  • Document

    Global iron ore long-term outlook Q3 2015

    PDF 732.57 KB

  • Document

    Global iron ore long-term outlook Q3 2015

    ZIP 1014.11 KB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 85.56 KB

  • Document


    PDF 207.60 KB

  • Document


    PDF 394.73 KB

  • Document

    Supply-demand balances

    PDF 152.42 KB

Table of contents

Tables and charts

This report includes 33 images and tables including:


  • Global consumption of iron ore by product
  • Growth in iron ore consumption and imports
  • Indian crude steel production: history and forecast
  • India vs. China: Growth in hot metal production
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 1
  • Cost curve - Chinese imports of sinter fines, US$/t CFR China, 62% Fe
  • Hot metal production vs. scrap supply
  • Burden mix in blast furnaces
  • Demand: Image 5
  • Iron ore exports: Brazil vs. Australia
  • Share of global exports: Brazil vs. Australia
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 3
  • Iron ore pellet premia
  • Indian trade in iron ore: transition from exporter to importer
  • Australia's Pilbara region
  • Iron ore trade balance and price forecast
  • Long run supply/demand balance
  • Chinese iron ore reserve by province
  • Chinese mined iron ore production
  • Supply: Image 4
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 7


  • Key demand forecast data
  • Executive summary: Table 1
  • Demand: Table 4
  • Demand: Table 5
  • Demand: Table 6
  • Demand: Table 7
  • Demand: Table 8
  • Demand: Table 2
  • Asia (ex-China): key demand forecast data
  • Iron ore production and exports by major country
  • Supply: Table 2
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 1

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